Written by Bob Holliday

Authored by Bob Holliday, a contributor for WRAL Sports.

Raleigh, N.C.

Just a few weeks ago, NC State had its strongest conference beginning in years, not seen since the late 80s under Jim Valvano. The team had a 5-1 record in ACC games, with their only defeat against the nationally ranked North Carolina.

The team’s five victories consisted of a notable defeat of Virginia 76-60 and a challenging triumph at PNC Arena against in-state rival Wake Forest.

In the middle of January, NC State did not perform well in terms of NET rankings. Without a win against a top-ranked team, they faced difficulty breaking into the top 60. However, with a strong record of winning 83% of their ACC games, it was expected that the team would eventually secure some Quad I wins.

Next was the defeat against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies were viewed favorably in the NET rankings compared to the Pack, largely because of their victory against Iowa State. They consistently placed in the top 50 or even 40 in the NET rankings.

However, during Virginia Tech’s visit to Raleigh, they had a record of only 2-4 in conference play. Despite NC State typically having a strong defense against three-point shots under coach Kevin Keatts, they allowed Virginia Tech to make 9 out of 19 shots from beyond the arc. The situation was compounded by the Wolfpack’s 18 turnovers on that day. As a result, the team has been facing difficulties in gaining momentum since then.

In the following match, State performed strongly against Virginia, who currently holds the longest winning streak in the ACC. Despite being down by nine points, the Wolfpack managed to tie the game and force overtime. However, they were unable to score in the first four possessions of overtime and ultimately lost 59-53.

After a few days, Keatts’ team had their worst showing of the season and lost by more than ten points on the road against Syracuse.

Keatts successfully motivated the team to achieve consecutive victories at home against Miami and Georgia Tech. However, it should be mentioned that Miami lacks strong defensive skills and Georgia Tech has a peculiar trend of only beating top-tier teams such as Duke, Clemson, and UNC. They have been defeated by all other opponents.

However, with a record of 7-4, State had the opportunity to compete for a spot in the top four of the ACC and secure a double bye in the ACC Tournament.

However, all of the progress made so far was reversed by a single defeat in a crucial match against Pitt, ending 67-64. Despite the Panthers’ impressive Quad I victory against Duke and their ranking of 59th in the most recent NET rankings, they were still two spots behind NC State in the ACC standings. In this home game, it was crucial for the Wolfpack to come out with a win. Unfortunately, they only made 6 out of 15 free throws, while Pitt made 18 out of 20, resulting in a 12-point difference in a close three-point game. Furthermore, Pitt outperformed NC State on the boards, grabbing 9 more rebounds. This loss only added to the pressure for their upcoming game against Wake Forest on Saturday.

Wake Forest has their own tasks to complete for the NCAA Tournament. Due to the focus on scoring margin in the NET, Wake quickly climbed up the rankings after defeating Syracuse and Georgia Tech by a significant 29 points each. As a result, they jumped from the 50s to No. 33 in a short period of time.

Despite their 7-4 record in the ACC, the Deacons were not included in Joe Lunardi’s most recent NCAA Tournament bracket. This meant that Wake would be highly motivated and a formidable opponent for NC State at the Joel, particularly because it came shortly after the intense game in Raleigh marred by multiple technical fouls.

NC State successfully converted their free throw attempts against Wake Forest, but the issue was that they did not have enough opportunities to do so. The team made 8 out of 11 attempts, while Wake Forest had 21 chances at the line and managed to make 17 of them. Interestingly, NC State committed more fouls than the home team, with a total of 21 compared to Wake Forest’s 11.

In my opinion, that was the defining moment of the game. Additionally, a few players appeared to become fatigued towards the end. D.J. Burns, for example, typically plays 25 minutes per game but ended up playing 30 minutes. He scored 14 points, but all of them were in the first 16 minutes of the second half. In the last 4:21, Burns missed a free throw, committed a foul, turned the ball over, and missed a jump shot with 38 seconds remaining and the score tied.

During the game, Hunter Sallis dominated the Wolfpack’s exhausted defense and scored 6 points in the last few minutes, contributing to his total of 33 points.

NC State performed well despite their loss against Wake Forest, even better than in some of their previous home wins in the ACC. With only 26 seconds left in the game, the score was tied at 79-79. Additionally, Horne had a chance to tie the game with a jumper in the final seconds. However, ultimately this was a lost chance for a Quad I victory for the Wolfpack and an opportunity to rank in the top four in the ACC.

Keatts made a lighthearted comment about how Wake Forest’s victory could potentially boost their ranking in the NET to the top 30, which would give NC State a Quad I win for their game at PNC. Unfortunately, this did not happen as the NET actually lowered Wake’s ranking from 33 to 36 after their close win. On the other hand, NC State’s ranking did not change and they stayed at 80. At least there is some consolation in that.

How NC State can the 2024 NCAA Tournament

Although the Wolfpack has not won the ACC Tournament since 1987, there is still a chance for them to win it. However, their chances of making it to the postseason in the ACC regular season are slim and they must be careful to avoid any mistakes.

The State team has a challenging schedule ahead, beginning with a game against Clemson on Saturday. However, there is some positive news as the schedule includes numerous chances to secure important Quad I victories.

Unfortunately, this particular team is met with a challenging beginning. NC State has struggled against Clemson in the past. Despite this, the Pack was able to secure an NCAA bid, while Clemson did not, causing some frustration for Brad Brownell’s team.

The major news is that State has not defeated Clemson since prior to the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. Additionally, the last time the Pack emerged victorious at Clemson was in 2015 under the leadership of coach Mark Gottfried. Littlejohn Coliseum has yet to see a victory from any of Kevin Keatts’ teams.

The next week, the team will return to Raleigh. They must ensure victory against Boston College and Syracuse. It is crucial for them to avoid a disappointing loss at home.

On February 27, a game with significant implications will take place at Florida State. Despite being ranked lower in the NET at No. 96, the Seminoles have a strong presence due to their size and ability to steal the ball. When they are shooting well, it is challenging for opposing teams to defeat them at their home court. In fact, they almost beat Virginia on Saturday.

After playing three consecutive Quad I games, the State team will face UNC, Duke, and Pittsburgh. A victory at the Peterson Events Center will be considered a Quad I win as long as Pitt is ranked in the top 75 of the NET. Additionally, if Virginia, currently ranked No. 32, moves up to the top 30, State’s win against them in January will also be classified as a Quad I win.

In order for State to qualify for the NCAA, they will need to improve their ranking by 40-45 spots. This requires winning the remaining Quad I games, which is at least three, and possibly all four, without experiencing any significant defeats.

What needs to be altered?

• The glass-work: NC State has a decent record of rebounding on the offensive end, but their ranking in defensive rebounding falls last in the ACC. This weakness has resulted in some losses for the Wolfpack this season. One contributing factor is the Kevin Keatts system, which typically utilizes four guards and one big man. This strategy aims to create turnovers and capitalize on transition opportunities. However, at the game against Wake Forest, Keatts opted for a larger lineup with D.J. Burns playing for 30 minutes, Mo Diarra for 33 minutes (achieving a double double), and Ben Middlebrooks for 10 minutes. This adjustment proved successful as State was able to limit Wake Forest to only 5 offensive rebounds. A definite improvement.

• State has accumulated 405 fouls throughout the season, averaging almost two more fouls per game compared to their opponents. In the loss against Wake Forest, fouls played a significant role. In terms of free throws, State holds a fourth place ranking in conference play with a success rate of 77%. However, in the game against Pitt, they only made 6 out of 15 attempts, which once again contributed to their loss. Consistency is crucial for this team.

• D.J. Horne, a skilled 3-point shooter, has a 43% success rate from the perimeter. No other player comes close to his shooting ability. If teams like Duke or UNC were to give Horne special defensive attention, it would be difficult for NC State to make more than 30% of their 3-point shots. Jayden Taylor is known for his strong defense but is inconsistent with his 3-point shots, as seen in his 1-8 performance against Wake Forest. Casey Morsell is considered the most versatile player on the team, but his 3-point shooting percentage of 27% is not ideal. Backup player Dennis Parker has a 31% success rate from beyond the arc. However, for a team that relies heavily on their ability to shoot and make more 3-pointers than their opponents, these numbers are not satisfactory.

• Improving Shots in the Paint: In conference games, NC State has a 46% success rate on their two point attempts, which is lower than desired. One contributing factor is the team’s tendency to take challenging shots inside. This is especially evident in Taylor’s shooting percentage of 45% inside the arc, as he often attempts difficult drives. To improve the two point percentage, the team’s big men need to receive more opportunities to score. Coach Keatts has the understandable goal of managing Burns’ playing time to keep him well-rested for crucial moments in games. However, Diarra and Middlebrooks are also capable scorers. Michael O’Connell stands out as State’s top passer and will likely try to facilitate more opportunities for the big men. It’s worth noting that State ranks 13th in three point shooting, which is not a sustainable strategy for winning. Therefore, it is crucial to focus on improving scoring from inside the arc.

The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) has proven its strength with 11 victories in the Quad I category against non-conference teams, and it holds a 9-3 record against the Big Twelve, which is widely considered the toughest conference in the country this year. However, NC State faces tough competition on its path to the top. It is unlikely that the Wolfpack will secure a spot in the NCAA tournament, but there is still a small possibility at this stage.

Source: wralsportsfan.com