Here are my predicted winners of each game of the fourth round of the 2024 NCHSAA football playoffs. Below, I’ve also ranked all 32 teams in terms of how confident I am that they will win.

Feedback is welcome at my X account: @JoelBryantHSOT. I’d be happy to explain any of these picks there!

I’ll keep a tally of my correct and incorrect picks for next week’s version of this article, and so on.

Other Weeks’ Picks:

Predicted Winners: Regional Finals

4A East: (5) Rolesville @ (2) Cardinal Gibbons

In terms of yards per attempt, Cardinal Gibbons has the best pass defense remaining in the 4A playoffs (4.8 yards). On the flip side, the Crusaders’ defense allows more yards per rush (4.7) than the other 4A teams. The Rams have done a good job of saving the legs of running back duo Devon Thomas and Amir Brown for the postseason.

In the matchup earlier this season, Rolesville did not play up to its standard and has to escape with a win in overtime. Maybe that earlier result gives Gibbons the necessary confidence, but I think it will just make an angry Rolesville team even angrier. Rolesville 37, Cardinal Gibbons 17

4A West: (2) Weddington @ (1) Grimsley

Grimsley is coming off a game in which senior running back Mitchell Summers rushed for 300 yards against a Hough team that mustered seven shutouts this season. In theory, a defensive front seven that is packed with four 4-star prospects and another linebacker with Division I upside is the most likely unit that can slow down Summers. In our calculations, Weddington has had the state’s best 4A run defense as it has given up just 3.03 yards per carry.

On the other hand, Weddington has the statistically worst pass defense remaining of the four 4A teams, but this week’s weather might again make it harder for teams anywhere in the state to establish a consistent passing attack. Faizon Brandon is North Carolina’s most efficient passer, but we haven’t seen a game this season in which he’s had to throw more than 22 balls. If Weddington’s Harris twins and the Panther Creek transfer Trajen Odom can dominate on early downs, the Warriors could test Brandon’s receiving corps. When this game was played last year, Brandon had two 4-star receivers.

The best argument for Grimsley? While Weddington crushed the Whirlies for 298 yards and five touchdowns on the ground last year, the Whirlies were without their top 100 player at defense end in Bryce Davis. The Duke signee is back from his injury and has been dominant against the run and pass this year. Weddington 24, Grimsley 23

3A East: (12) Jacksonville @ (2) Seventy-First

Jacksonville had one of the best playoff rushing efforts in NCHSAA playoff history last week as the Cards blasted Havelock for over 500 yards. However, Seventy-First is not Havelock. The Falcons have crushed teams with their run defense all year, allowing just 2.8 yards a pop. Further, Seventy-First has forced 19 fumbles this season. Demon June and company will certainly eclipse the 64 yards that is allowed by Seventy-First on average, but it’s just going to be too difficult to get the level of production needed on the ground to content with the explosive Falcon offense on the other side.

Jacksonville has allowed over 18 points per game and over 300 yards per game. While the Cardinals played in the outstanding Big Carolina Conference, they did not see a quarterback as talented as DeAndre Nance of SeventyFirst. Nance has only lost three games since he began his varsity career as a freshman. Seventy-First 45, Jacksonville 24

3A West: (8) West Charlotte @ (3) Hickory

This one feels destined for an exciting finish. West Charlotte is playing its best ball of the year, while Hickory has found itself in danger the past two weeks. I always wonder about a team that is coming off of its best performance like how West Charlotte is coming off of that Dudley game. Can that awesome play that the Lions had last week continue, or will there be an ounce of regression? In football, the ball bounces funny way, literally and figuratively. Hickory, in the meantime, has had to be extra careful about the details after these scares to Crest and North Lincoln.

West Charlotte will be loaded for years – this team is dotted with sophomores and freshmen making an impact. Hickory, on the other hand, has its strength in the senior classes. That difference in experience could make a slight difference in the end.

Brady Stober and company have won 30-straight games. No matter how dicey it looks in the fourth quarter, it seems that he always finds a way. Hickory 35, West Charlotte 34

2A East: (2) Whiteville @ (1) Northeastern

On September sixth, Whiteville lost to James Kenan in a 21-20 non-conference thriller. Exactly three months later, Northeastern beat James Kenan 46-28 to advance to the regional final.

Northeastern usually makes its money in the passing game, but Whiteville’s defense has allowed over five yards a rush this season. Senior wide receiver Ty’jae Simpson has taken up an increased rushing role over the past two weeks and has rushed for 294 yards and three touchdowns. Expect Simpson to get a good deal of carries against Whiteville in the cold winter weather. Northeastern 34, Whiteville 21

2A West: (9) Brevard @ (3) Monroe

Brevard has allowed by far the most passing yards per attempt and passing touchdowns of the remaining 2A teams. Monroe’s 4-star defensive back prospect Jordan Young has terrorized teams as a wide receiver over his career. This year, Young is averaging 23.6 yards per catch. While Brevard has allowed about 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, the Blue Devils have also averaged over one interception per game. However, Redhawk quarterback Kaegan Chambers has avoided turnovers this year with just two interceptions to this name. Monroe 31, Brevard 14

1A East: (3) Wilson Prep @ (1) Tarboro

Wilson Prep will be the largest team in the trenches that Tarboro has faced during this run of regional final appearances. However, we’re looking at the best Tarboro team of the past three seasons. Last week, the Vikings didn’t break a single sweat against a Pender team that was averaging nearly 400 yards a game on the ground. The Vikings held them to just 183 yards of total offense. If there’s been one area of non-dominance on the Tarboro defense this year, its been with defending the pass. Wilson Prep has thrown the ball more this year. The Tigers have attempted just under 200 passes. Maybe there’s an avenue that the Tigers can find through the air, but Tarboro is just playing at too high of a level right now for it to matter. Tarboro 40, Wilson Prep 16

1A West: (5) Corvian Community @ (2) Mountain Heritage

The biggest problem that Corvian presents other 1A teams is at its edge spots. The Cardinals have two 6-foot-5 edge defenders: Doug Quarles and Adrian Scott. Mountain Heritage might have to avoid running it out to the perimeter because of those guys. The Cougars should find some advantages in the interior areas of the trenches like they were able to against Murphy. Corvian is not abnormally large in the middle. Heritage could be able to pull off some big runs with those interior blocks.

Last week’s game between Mount Airy and Corvian felt like it was more about Mount Airy shooting itself in the foot with busted coverage and a lack of fundamentals like covering up the ball on run plays. Mountain Heritage is an inspired team that should not make those same blunders as the Bears did last week. Mountain Heritage 24, Corvian Community 17