By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan contributor

Getting a bowl bid remains an important measuring stick for today’s college football programs.

Duke is among the eight ACC teams already guaranteed postseason play. NC State and UNC are part of a group of six ACC teams needing just one more win.

Let’s look ahead and see what awaits the three Triangle teams.

Duke

After its decisive win at NC State, Duke is moving into position for an attractive bowl bid. The Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando scouted the Blue Devils’ narrow overtime loss to SMU. Duke currently stands at 7-3 (3-3 ACC). Manny Diaz’s team has played a difficult conference schedule, including the two frontrunners in SMU and Miami. Duke’s conference opponents to date have a record of 34-24—an even more impressive 33-15 if you don’t count the 1-9 record of Florida State.

Season synopsis: Duke fields one of the ACC’s very best defenses, having just limited red hot NC State to 268 yards and 19 points Saturday. The Blue Devils lead the league in Pass defense and rank third in scoring D. The return of injured wide receiver Jordan Moore has helped energize the passing attack. At NC State, Maalik Murphy enjoyed his best day, 22-31 for 245 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Duke continues to struggle in the run game—just 31 yards at State. Injuries to tight ends Jeremiah Hasley and Nicky Dalmolin have really limited open space for both Star Thomas and Peyton Jones. Duke used six offensive linemen on some plays Saturday, and also added a zone read option for Murphy, who rarely runs. Murphy did score a touchdown with a 3-yard run but Duke needs more in this area.

Remaining games

Virginia Tech: The Hokies are one of those six teams that need a win to become bowl eligible. VT struggled against Clemson, running for just 40 yards. Quarterback Kyron Drones returned from injury but only passed for 115 yards. Clemson held the Hokies without an offensive touchdown, until #2 quarterback Collin Schlee threw a touchdown pass with 1:43 left. Duke, because of its defense, has a good opportunity to win—if it can avoid special teams mistakes. Tech blocked a Clemson field goal and ran it back for a touchdown. This will be a close game unless the Blue Devils can muster some kind of running attack. Also Virginia Tech fans travel well and will give their team a boost for sure. Still, Duke is 4-1 at home, the only blemish being that brutal OT loss to SMU. The Blue Devils have enjoyed strong support from their crowd at Wade Stadium this season.

Wake Forest: Wake needs two wins for bowl eligibility following the Deacons’ 46-36 loss at home to the Cal Bears. Wake has a formidable remaining schedule with road games at North Carolina and Miami before hosting the finale against Duke. Cal gained 385 yards through the air in Winston-Salem. Wake ranks dead last in pass defense, trailing even Stanford. Dave Clawson’s team can move the ball, averaging about 400 yards and 28 points per game. If the Deacs can win one of their next two road games they would play Duke on November 30 for a shot at six wins and bowl eligibility. But Duke will be favored in any event.

Projected finish: 9-3

Recent bowl history

• 2023: Birmingham
• 2022: Annapolis
• 2019-2021: No bowls

NC State

The 29-19 defeat to Duke marked the third time NC State has lost a conference game at home this season. The program suffered just three home losses during the previous three seasons combined! Schedules in the 17 team ACC are not all equal and the Wolfpack has faced a challenging slate. The combined record of State’s ACC opponents to date is 31-24—29-17 if we don’t count 2-7 Stanford. State has the most difficult path to bowl eligibility in the Triangle, just two games remaining and both on the road.

Season synopsis: NC State started league play 0-3, losing highly touted transfer quarterback Grayson McCall in the process. The Wolfpack transitioned to true freshman C.J. Bailey who settled in after an up and down start. Bailey led the Pack to victory at Cal, and then broke records in that 59-28 shellacking of Stanford. Dave Doeren’s team appeared to be following the same pattern as 2023 when the program finished the regular season with a string of wins. But the Duke loss changes everything. State rushed for just 84 yards that day against a Blue Devil defense that is somewhat generous against the run allowing about 150 yards per game. Forced to throw, Bailey hit just 16-39 passes for 184 yards against the ACC’s top pass defense. The other takeaway from the first ten games is that State’s defense is not as good as the Payton Wilson led unit of 2023. The Wolfpack allows more than 30 points per game and ranks in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories.

Remaining games

Georgia Tech: NC State must visit the place where #4 Miami suffered its first loss Saturday. Visiting teams often struggle in Atlanta and the Yellow Jackets are now buoyed by the return of star quarterback Haynes King. King suffered an upper body injury in the North Carolina game. GT was leading 34-24 at the time. UNC rallied and nearly pulled out a win after King’s departure. The Jackets went 0-2 in the subsequent games where King was on the sideline. He started for the first time in a month against Miami, and led his team to victory. King rushed for 93 yards and kept Tech’s offense moving. GT enjoyed a 35-25 edge in time of possession, keeping Miami’s potent offense on the sideline. NC State faces more of the same, especially if star running back Jamal Haynes is cleared to play after suffering a head injury against the Canes. Tech’s defense statistically is very much like Duke’s, except the Yellow Jackets do more offensively to control the football. State has 10 days to prepare but the Wolfpack defense will need to play its best game and get Georgia Tech off the field. Bailey, even if his time on offense is limited, has to be more accurate throwing. GT is already bowl eligible at 6-4 (4-3 ACC) but looking for more.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels have two chances to attain bowl eligibility before the Nov. 30 matchup with the Pack in Chapel Hill, so it’s somewhat unlikely that we’ll see a matchup of two 5-6 teams, though it’s not out of the question. North Carolina struggled mightily in the middle of the season but has been a different team lately. UNC, with star Omarion Hampton leads the ACC in rushing. Jacolby Criswell, the third stringer in preseason, continues to improve at quarterback, with 11 touchdown passes against just 3 interceptions. UNC’s defense is pretty solid against the run and the Tar Heels lead the ACC in sacks with 32, half of those coming in the last two games. NC State has won three straight in this series. Last year’s 39-20 rout led to see some well-publicized comments from the Wolfpack locker room about the character of the two programs. UNC’s last win in this series came in 2020, but that year the Wolfpack was already bowl-eligible.

Projected finish: 5-7/6-6. The Wolfpack will likely lose at Georgia Tech, but I’m on the fence about the finale. NC State always plays so hard against the Tar Heels and that might be enough.

Recent bowl history

• 2023: Orlando
• 2022: Charlotte
• 2021: San Diego (game canceled)
• 2020: Jacksonville

State has missed the postseason just twice—2013 and 2019 in Dave Doeren’s 12 seasons. Much rides on the last two games.

UNC

North Carolina (5-4) has three chances to get to six wins, and the Tar Heels could finish 7-5 or 8-4. The Strength of Carolina’s schedule to date is comparable to that of NC State. Tar Heel ACC opponents are 36-22 or 25-13 if we disregard Florida State. Mack Brown’s previous three teams made strong starts but finished poorly. This Tar Heels team hopes for a strong finish.

Season synopsis: UNC began the campaign with a win at Minnesota, a team that later upset nationally ranked Illinois and stands 4-3 in the powerful Big Ten. But defensive leader Kaimon Rucker suffered a weight room injury during the ensuing week. UNC’s defense fell apart, giving up 70 points to James Madison, 21 second half points in a loss to Duke, 34 points to Pitt, and 41 points to Georgia Tech, the final seven coming on a 68-yard-touchdown run with 16 seconds left. But Rucker returned in full following UNC’s open date and the Tar Heel defense has been lights out since. The Tar Heels whipped Virginia (which just upset Pitt) 41-14 and Florida State 35-11, both on the road, recording an astounding 16 sacks in the two games. Offensively, Hampton has been a constant force running the football and that has helped Criswell evolve into one of the ACC’s more effective quarterbacks—the Tar Heels move the chains on third down 43% of the time.

Remaining games

Wake Forest: The Deacons will be desperate, needing two wins in the final three games to make the postseason. However, if the Tar Heels keep playing as they have since Rucker’s return, they should get a much-needed home victory. Carolina is 4-1 on the road but just 2-3 in Kenan Stadium. Criswell should be able to take advantage of Wake’s porous pass defense and Hampton will give the Deacons plenty to think about between passes. These teams have a history of staging high scoring shootouts and this Wake team is capable of putting up points. Demond Claiborne averages 91 yards per game rushing and Hank Bachmeier is a top six passer. But the Deacons have given up more than three sacks per game and that plays right into Carolina’s hand.

Boston College: BC is another of those five win teams trying to count to six. The Eagles visit ACC kingpin SMU (yes, sounds strange but Mustangs are undefeated) this weekend, so they’ll likely still be playing for bowl eligibility when UNC travels to Chestnut Hill November 23. BC began the season 4-1 with a win over Michigan State and a strong showing at then #6 Missouri. BC lost three straight ACC games to Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Louisville before beating Syracuse in overtime. The Eagles are led by QB Thomas Castellanos, who last year rushed for more than 1,100 yards. Costellanos is still dangerous as a runner but this season seems content to hand off to Kye Robichaux (ACC Player of the Week) and Treshaun Ward. BC ranks seventh in rushing offense and third in passing offense efficiency. However, the Eagles have been hurt by the pass, allowing 243 yards per game and maybe UNC can take advantage of that. On the other hand, it can be cold and windy in Boston, making passing difficult. This won’t be an easy game.

NC State: UNC has better stats, outrushing NC State 201-121 and outscoring the Pack 34-28. Passing is pretty even but what’s surprising is that statistically North Carolina has an edge defensively. State gives up 10 more yards per game and four more points per game. And the Tar Heels’ figure of 26 points per game defensively includes the 70 points piled up by James Madison. Still, for the last three seasons this game has been more about on field intensity then numbers. Can UNC match NC State’s passion and effort on the field?

Projected finish: 7-5. The Tar Heels could go 8-4 but beating Boston College and NC State in back-to-back weeks as those teams battle for bowl eligibility is a tough ask.

Recent bowl history

• 2023: Charlotte
• 2022: San Diego
• 2021: Charlotte
• 2020: Miami
• 2019: Annapolis                      

Although the Tar Heels haven’t won a bowl game since 2019, every team under Mack Brown II has enjoyed a post season trip. If UNC can overcome its disastrous midseason with a cluster of late season wins, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown coaches another season. Or two.

Source: wralsportsfan.com