Written by Bob Holliday, a contributor for WRAL Sports.

Damon Stoudamire’s Georgia Tech squad has been quite unpredictable in the ACC in recent years. Despite a 3-7 record in the conference and 10-11 overall, the Yellow Jackets have managed to defeat highly-ranked opponents such as Mississippi State, Penn State, Duke, and Clemson (twice). Stoudamire has shown great coaching ability, but if his team could perform consistently against Boston College and Notre Dame as they do against top-ranked teams, he would definitely be a strong candidate for coach of the year.

The University of North Carolina did not perform well during their games in Atlanta, which has been a trend in both football and basketball. However, R.J. Davis, who scored 28 points, helped the Tar Heels maintain their undefeated streak. Davis made a crucial drive to give his team a one-point lead, 73-72. After Naithan George, a 6’6 freshman standout, made a drive to put Georgia Tech in the lead, Davis once again attacked the basket and secured the win. Analyst Jay Williams believed that Georgia Tech committed a foul, but there was no call from the referees.

UNC’s impressive and uninterrupted winning streak has been broken. However, this unexpected triumph by GT should not diminish the excitement surrounding Saturday’s highly anticipated UNC and Duke game.

In January, North Carolina solidified its position as the top team in the ACC by dominating the highly respected Clemson. On the other hand, Duke faced some obstacles in their quest to surpass the Tar Heels. In December, the Blue Devils were defeated by Georgia Tech, and later suffered a loss at home against Pitt, a team they had previously beaten by a large margin just 11 days prior.

Outcome: Duke has continuously alternated between second place, fiercely competing for rank in the league standings against teams such as NC State, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest.

However, Duke continued its trend of close home wins by beating Clemson and then went on to secure a clear 77-67 win against Virginia Tech on Monday night. As a result, Duke’s record is now 7-2 while UNC’s is 9-1, putting Duke in sole possession of second place. Both teams are currently ranked in the top 10 by the AP. The UNC-Duke game carries extra significance when they hold the top two spots in the ACC standings.

The beginning of the Heels’ season is the strongest it has been in 23 years.

Paxson Wojcik only scored two points during Saturday’s game against Florida State. However, his tip-in towards the end of the first half was crucial in stopping UNC’s high number of turnovers. It could even be seen as symbolic, as his father Doug was an assistant coach for the Tar Heels during their 9-0 start in ACC play in 2001. Without Paxson’s important contribution, UNC may have ended up with a record of 8-1 after their game in Tallahassee.

Carolina had a strong start at FSU, but Florida State dominated the game in the final 6 ½ minutes of the first half. This was mainly due to freshman point guard Elliott Cadeau picking up his second foul and having to sit on the bench. By the time Wojcik made an important rebound basket, FSU had outscored the Heels 14-5. The Seminoles’ success was largely fueled by turnovers, which increased after Cadeau left the game. Florida State capitalized on these turnovers and scored 19 points in the first half. If it weren’t for Wojcik’s efforts and the only field goal made by the Heels in the last four minutes, they could have been trailing by even more than just 5 points at halftime.

Cadeau came back onto the court in the latter half and the Tar Heels regained their advantage. With Cadeau scoring 9 points and providing multiple assists, UNC outscored FSU 24-11 at the beginning of the second half. The Seminoles were unable to keep up with the speedy freshman from New Jersey. As a last resort, Coach Leonard Hamilton assigned 6’11 Baba Miller to guard Cadeau. While Miller was able to stop Cadeau’s layups, he fouled him repeatedly, allowing Cadeau to make 8 out of 9 free throws. Cadeau’s confidence only grew as the game progressed.

Cadeau also has an impact on R.J. Davis, taking over the responsibility of ball handling so RJD can focus on scoring. During the game against FSU, Davis scored 24 points, with 21 of them being while Cadeau was playing. Do you have any questions about this?

Davis did not have a great day beyond the arc, making just 2-8. But with threes not falling, Davis attacked the paint. He scored in transition twice. When the Noles got back on defense, he showed his full arsenal, stopping and popping from 10 feet, hitting a step through down the stretch, and then hitting the second half’s biggest shot, putting up a softer jumper, a floater that rolled in after FSU had cut the UNC lead to two. Davis then made three free throws to put the game away.

Although Cadeau and Davis played significant roles in UNC’s victory, forward Harrison Ingram’s all-around performance was crucial to their win. The 6’9 transfer made 3 out of 4 shots from beyond the arc and ended the game with 13 points and 17 rebounds. Ingram also made a critical defensive play at the end of the game, blocking Jamir Watkins’ jump shot and sealing UNC’s hard-fought 75-68 win.

The Devils emerged victorious over Clemson in a close game.

In 1995, Rick Barnes was the coach at Clemson when they last won at Cameron. This game in early January was important because it signaled the end of the season for Mike Krzyzewski, who then went on medical leave.

On Saturday, Clemson came close to breaking a 29-year dry spell. P.J. Hall scored two free throws, giving the Tigers a 71-70 lead with only 7 seconds remaining.

Duke’s star guard, Tyrese Proctor, was sent towards the Clemson basket by his team. However, a foul was called on Josh Beadle, causing Coach Brad Brownell and guard Joe Girard to visibly express their anger. Despite this, Proctor remained composed and confidently made the free throws, leading Duke to their sixth ACC victory of the season.

Many Duke supporters did not anticipate a close ending to the game based on how it unfolded in the first half. Due to Proctor and his team’s impressive 46% accuracy from behind the three-point line, Duke was able to establish a comfortable 12 point advantage at 32-20.

Despite a weak shooting performance at only 38%, Clemson managed to make a comeback in the second half. Despite the return of Duke’s top rebounder Mark Mitchell from injury, Clemson dominated the boards with help from Hall and the tireless Ian Schieffelin, grabbing 25% of their missed shots and limiting Duke to less than 10%.

Amidst the controversy surrounding Clemson’s last second foul, it should not be overlooked that the Tigers held a four point advantage with a little over two minutes remaining. However, Duke was able to make four steals on four consecutive possessions by Clemson. Despite facing some difficulties, the Blue Devils were able to capitalize, with top scorer Jared McCain (21 points) taking one of the steals and converting it into a 94-foot shot. Additionally, Kyle Filipowski, who had been struggling with fouls and poor free throw shooting, made an impressive spin move for a basket and drew a foul. Despite only making 5 out of 11 free throws against Clemson, Filipowski sunk the crucial free throw after his field goal, giving Duke a 70-69 lead.

The final moments of the game were filled with intense drama as Hall and Proctor traded free throws. However, Duke ultimately came out on top with a one point lead at the final buzzer.

The major update was that Jeremy Roach, the leader of the team, was able to participate in 25 minutes of the game despite his injured ankle. Roach only made one shot out of eight attempts, but he provided stability for the team in the final moments. However, Roach looked much better in the following game against Virginia Tech, playing 29 minutes and taking control of the game.

Prior to the injuries sustained by Roach and Mitchell, Duke easily defeated Pitt on their home court with a 75-53 victory, shooting an impressive 52%. However, in the weeks that followed, Duke’s performance was lackluster as they nearly lost a second game to Georgia Tech and ultimately fell to Pitt. Even their win against Clemson did not bring back memories of their strong start in early January. However, during their game on Monday in Blacksburg, the Blue Devils returned to their dominant form and completely controlled the game.

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Analyzing the matchup between the Heels and Devils

Duke has the upper hand in ball handling.

Despite Duke’s 14 turnovers against Virginia Tech, the team typically displays good ball security. After playing multiple conference games, I find that the statistics from ACC-only games are the most telling of a team’s current performance. In ACC games, Duke only averages 9.13 turnovers, with only Virginia (9.0) performing better. In comparison, North Carolina has an average of nearly 12 turnovers per game and had 17 turnovers in their game against Florida State.

Shooting: Advantage Duke

Once again, Duke has the advantage. The Blue Devils have a 44.6% overall shooting percentage compared to the Tar Heels’ 43.9%. In terms of three-point shooting, Duke has an even bigger lead. They have a 39% success rate (53% at Virginia Tech) while UNC has struggled with only 32.6% in ACC games, which is 3 points lower than their usual average. In their loss against Georgia Tech, the Tar Heels only made 8 out of 28 three-point attempts, or approximately 28%. This recurring problem with three-point shooting is becoming a major issue for the Tar Heels as the season draws to a close. Sound familiar? However, UNC does have the edge when it comes to free throws with a 76% success rate compared to Duke’s 72%. In their game against Virginia Tech, Duke only hit 60% of their free throws.

Rebounding: Advantage UNC

UNC is the dominant rebounding team in the ACC, thanks to the leadership of Harrison Ingram and Armando Bacot. They out-rebound their opponents by an impressive 12 rebounds per game, with a 35% offensive rebound rate and only allowing opponents to grab offensive rebounds 21% of the time. In comparison, Duke’s rebound margin is only +1, despite their strong performance against VT at the Cassell. While they have average offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, Duke struggled on the boards in their recent home game against Clemson.

Duke has the upper hand in the game thanks to their strong defense.

The Duke basketball team averages 12 turnovers per game, which is among the top in the league. In their recent game against Clemson, Duke’s guards were able to steal the ball four times in the final two minutes, ultimately helping the team come back from a 69-65 deficit. In contrast, the University of North Carolina only averages less than 10 takeaways per game. It is worth mentioning, however, that the Tar Heels have successfully used a press defense in some games, such as in their recent game in Atlanta where they fell just one turnover short of winning.

UNC has the advantage in their half court defense.

This year, the University of North Carolina’s (UNC) main focus is their defense. They have been able to limit their opponents to shooting only 36.9% from the field and 24.9% from the three-point line. In my 50 years of covering UNC basketball, I have never witnessed such impressive numbers. On the other hand, Duke’s defense falls short of these leading ACC numbers, allowing opponents to shoot 44% overall and 35% from the three-point line. Additionally, UNC has an advantage in the paint with Armando Bacot leading the ACC in blocked shots and playing a crucial role in their defensive success.

I will be keeping an eye out for Saturday.

Is there a defender on Duke’s team who is able to keep up with Elliott Cadeau?

Cadeau greatly benefits from the screens set by Bacot. How will Duke handle these screens? Cadeau occasionally takes a short jump shot, but usually drives towards the basket. Will Duke focus on stopping Cadeau, or allow him to pass to Bacot or Ingram inside, or even pass out to R.J. Davis? It is difficult to defend against all of these options once Cadeau penetrates into the lane. However, Georgia Tech simply attacked Cadeau on defense, which proved to be effective. He ended up fouling out with 5:49 remaining in the game.

Is Jeremy Roach’s ankle improving?

In the game against Pitt, Duke suffered a loss while Roach was absent, and barely managed a win against Clemson when Roach only played minimally. However, in the game against Blacksburg, Roach seemed to be at full strength as he scored 16 points, including 4-5 from three-point range, and dished out four assists. It’s worth noting that Roach has a 90% free throw shooting accuracy and made both of his shots from the stripe. Without his contribution, Duke’s free throw percentage would have been only 50%, which would not have been enough to beat VT on Saturday. It’s expected that Roach will continue to improve physically, and his presence on the court is crucial for Duke. He has more experience playing against UNC than any of his teammates, which will be valuable as Duke faces off against their tough defense. With the return of Roach, along with Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor, and Caleb Foster, Duke’s backcourt is deeper than UNC’s, which could come into play in the later stages of the game when fatigue and foul trouble become factors. And let’s not forget – Roach is a 90% free throw shooter.

Is UNC’s ability to defend during transition similar to its half-court defense?

Jon Scheyer has a strong preference for taking three point shots while transitioning on the court. He refers to this type of shot as a “Duke shot.” This term originated in 2001 when the Duke basketball team broke the record for the most three point shots made in a single season in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). The University of North Carolina (UNC) has a defensive strategy of limiting their opponents to a 24.9% success rate from beyond the three point line during half court play. However, it remains to be seen if they can effectively defend against Duke’s transition three point shots by quickly getting back on defense. This was a significant issue in their game against Georgia Tech, where they allowed the Yellow Jackets to make 9 out of 20 three point shots, resulting in a 45% success rate. UNC’s inability to defend against transition threes played a significant role in their loss against Georgia Tech.

Is it possible for Bacot and Filipowski to avoid getting into foul trouble?

Both Bacot and Filipowski have a tendency to commit fouls. If one of them receives two early fouls and has to sit out for a significant amount of time in the first half, it could give the opponents an advantage. While Bacot has improved in avoiding foul trouble in recent games, he has a history of missing playing time due to fouls and playing with multiple fouls. Filipowski also struggled with fouls in previous games, picking up four against Virginia Tech and fouling out completely against Clemson. Duke’s guards do not seem to have a problem with fouls, but Cadeau is still learning how to play without committing them. When he gets his second foul in the first half, coach Hubert Davis always takes him out of the game. UNC’s offense suffers without him on the court. As we saw in the game against Georgia Tech, Cadeau can quickly accumulate fouls, which greatly affects his team’s performance.

Who will have more rebounds, Mitchell or Ingram?

Mark Mitchell plays a crucial role both on and off the court for Duke. When Mitchell is present, Filipowski is able to score and rebound more effectively. However, during Duke’s most recent home game against Pitt, Mitchell, along with Roach, was absent. Mitchell ranks among the top 15 rebounders in the ACC.

However, in conference play, Ingram holds the top spot. Ingram has similar abilities to Mitchell when it comes to scoring around the hoop. However, Ingram excels in three-point shooting. While Ingram’s performance from beyond the arc can vary, if he can draw Mitchell away from the basket to defend the three, it creates more opportunities for the Heels inside.

Ingram’s performance against GT was 3-14, with only 2-7 from three-point range. If he maintains this shooting accuracy on Saturday, Mark Mitchell will likely excel in defensive play and rebounding.

Which bench yields a higher score?

Currently, Duke has a primarily seven-player rotation, with the exception of Sean Stewart who has received some playing time in the recent games against Clemson and Virginia Tech. These seven players have all made significant contributions to the team’s performance. In the game against Virginia Tech, Roach was a key player coming off the bench and playing exceptionally well for 29 minutes. Meanwhile, Caleb Foster started the game but was eventually substituted for by Roach. Foster still managed to play for 15 minutes and score 8 points, showcasing his productivity. In addition, Ryan Young played 15 minutes due to Filipowski’s foul trouble and also had a productive performance, scoring 10 points and grabbing 5 rebounds.

The University of North Carolina usually has a rotation of 9 or 10 players, thanks to Hubert Davis utilizing his bench more effectively this year. Expect to see Jae’lyn Withers and Jalen Washington get some playing time on Saturday to give Bacot and Ingram a break. Paxson Wojcik and Seth Trimble could also make an impact during the game. I anticipate Trimble getting significant minutes against Duke’s deep backcourt.

Coach Davis may occasionally utilize additional bench players, but it is uncertain who those players may be at this time. Washington played well for 11 minutes at Tech, despite having less playing time recently. He stood out as the top performer for UNC towards the end of the first half. It remains to be seen if he will receive similar playing time against Duke.

Can UNC maintain an advantage on their home court?

The University of North Carolina has not lost a game at home this season. They tend to perform better at home during ACC games compared to when they play away. At away games, their average winning margin is only 10 points per game. However, at home, they are winning by an average of 20 points per game. In general, UNC has an average winning margin of 15 points per game in conference play, which is significantly higher than any other team in the league. The upcoming game against Duke at the Smith Center will be their toughest challenge yet this season.

Source: wralsportsfan.com