By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contritbutor

While Duke’s rival was suffering an epic beatdown at home from a Group of Five opponent, the Blue Devils were taking care of business on the road at Middle Tennessee. Manny Diaz’s Devils begin ACC play with a perfect 4-0 slate and host the Tar Heels at 4 p.m. on Saturday (ESPN2).

Sizing up Saturday’s Battle of the Blues

Duke strengths

Defense: Duke ranks 5th in scoring defense at 15.3 points per game, 2nd in total defense, 259 yards per game, and 1st in pass defense. Duke allows just 132 yards per game through the air. The Blue Devils are second in sacks with 15, just behind Miami.

Discipline: Duke commits fewer than four penalties per game for 43 yards, one of the cleanest work sheets in the conference. Duke did not commit a single penalty in its game against Elon.

Passing: Only Miami and Pitt have more touchdown passes than Duke. Murphy has passed for 11 six pointers, completing 65% of his tosses for 256 yards per contest. He does occasionally force passes and has thrown four interceptions.

Receivers: Jordan Moore is #7 in the conference with 24 catches for 85 yards per game. He has three touchdowns. Eli Pancol is a deep threat and can also turn short passes into big gains. Tight End Nicky Dalmolin, off a 100 yard game against Middle Tennessee, must also be accounted for. Ditto Que’Sean Brown.

Duke weaknesses

Rushing: Duke ranks 15th in the ACC at 104 yards per game. The injury to Jaquez Moore is a factor, along with an injury in the offensive line. Also Murphy is not a threat to run the football which simplifies defensive assignments.

Third down conversions: Maybe because of rushing deficiencies Duke converts just 32% of third downs. The Blue Devils do much of their scoring with big plays-both in the pass game and on defense.

Rushing defense: Good as Duke’s overall defense is, the Blue Devils’ defense against the run has slipped a bit. Duke allows 127 yards per game which is not bad, but ranks only 11th best in the ACC. Middle Tennessee rushed for 168 yards Saturday.

UNC strengths

Rushing: North Carolina leads the ACC in this category, primarily because Omarion Hampton averages 139 yards per game with six touchdowns. The Tar Heels as a team average 222 yards per game.

Rushing defense: Strange to consider this a strength after giving up 223 yards on the ground to JMU but the running ability of quarterback Alonza Barnett created confusion over assignments, something the Tar Heels had not seen in previous games. UNC allowed just 203 yards rushing in the first three games combined, which is top three in the ACC. After Saturday’s disastrous performance the Heels still rank 8th at an average of 106 yards per game.

Pass rush: UNC, like Duke can pressure the passer. Jahvaree Ritzie leads the ACC with five sacks, although he did not appear in Saturday’s box score. UNC has 12 sacks overall, 4th best in the league.

Third down conversions: This team converts 46% of third downs,4th best. Carolina can put together long drives.

UNC weaknesses

Pass defense: The Tar Heels allow 8.8 yards per pass attempt. That’s the worst in the ACC. Often it seems UNC’s strategy is to just pressure the passer and hope he throws the ball away. If the quarterback has time to throw, it’s almost always a completion against this secondary. The Heels have given up an unusual number of long completions, including four this past Saturday. UNC also gave up long passes to both Charlotte and NC Central.

Discipline: UNC averages 72 penalty yards per game. Only two teams are worse in this category.

Red zone defense: Teams that get inside the 20 against the Tar Heels score 93’% of the time. The Heels have allowed 9 touchdowns and 4 field goals in 14 trips to the red zone.

Passing: UNC ranks just 13th in passing offense with six touchdowns and four interceptions. And not one Tar Heel receiver ranks among the league’s top 25. But 475 of UNC’s 984 yards through the air came on the strong arm of Jacolby Criswell in his first start, so passing could become a strength for UNC in the near future.

Key (players) to the game

Duke really misses Jaquez Moore. UNC’s pass rush has not been the same since Kaimon Rucker got hurt the week after the Minnesota game. If either team gets their key player back they’ll get a boost.

Maalik Murphy will salivate watching video of open receivers against UNC’s secondary. UNC’s pass rush should be more effective against a quarterback that doesn’t try to run, but Duke is among the league’s best at protecting the passer. Only four sacks allowed in four games.

UNC must do a better job of blocking for Omarion Hampton. Yes, he gained 139 yards, but many of those came on chunk plays. 8 of Hampton’s 19 runs went for two yards, one yard, or no yards at all.

Duke will key on Hampton, as Jacolby Criswell is not an option or zone read type quarterback. He can scramble for yards, but Conner Harrell’s speed makes UNC’s run game harder to defend. The Blue Devils need to gang tackle Hampton near the line of scrimmage as much as possible-like JMU did. Once he gets into the secondary he is very difficult to tackle one on one and has deceptive speed.

If Duke cannot take away the run, UNC’s passing attack with Criswell will challenge the Blue Devils’ excellent pass defense, which to date is the best in the ACC.

UNC cannot be careless with the football, because Duke is among the leaders in takeaways. UNC protected the ball well in the first three games but coughed it up five times in Saturday’s debacle.

Finally, Mack Brown of UNC and Manny Diaz of Duke have some history. Brown hired Diaz as his defensive coordinator at Texas in 2010. In Diaz’s second season, the Longhorns gave up 550 yards rushing to BYU and Taysom Hill. Brown fired Diaz after the game. 2011 was Brown’s last season coaching in Austin.

Brown returned to UNC in 2019 and Diaz took the head coaching job at his home town school, Miami. The Tar Heels and Hurricanes played three times between 2019 and 2021. The Heels crushed the Canes during the pandemic in 2020 62-26. But the other two games were extremely close three-point games.

So here’s a possible intangible Saturday: Mack leads Manny 3-0. Manny is due.

Source: wralsportsfan.com