By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee did quite a job selecting and seeding teams for this NCAA Tournament. The Elite Eight featured three #1 vs. #2 games and a single #1 vs. #3 with Florida slipping past Texas Tech. And of course, for just the second time in NCAA history (2008 was the other) the Final Four this week features four #1 seeds.

Let’s break down the matchup that matters most in these parts, Duke and Houston.

History favors the Blue Devils

Scheyer has chance at singular achievement

This marks Duke’s 18th trip to the Final Four and the first since 2022. The Blue Devils have won five national titles, the last in 2015. Coach Jon Scheyer has a chance to create some history of his own. No one has ever won an NCAA basketball championship as a player and as a coach at the same school. Scheyer captained the 2010 Duke championship team and now has a chance to win a title as coach.

Houston has never come out on top

The University of Houston will make its 7th trip to the Final Four, and its first since 2021. The Cougars have never won the NCAA Tournament, memorably losing to NC State in 1983 and Georgetown in 1984.

All time series: Duke leads 1-0. The Blue Devils defeated the Cougars 54-51 in last year’s Sweet Sixteen.

The coaches are a study in contrast

Scheyer remade roster after 2024 Elite Eight loss

At age 37, Scheyer would become one of the youngest coaches to win the NCAA title should Duke cut down the nets Monday night.

Branch McCracken, 31, Bud Foster 34, Fred Taylor 35, and Bob Knight 35 were all younger, but this is just Scheyer’s third year as a head coach. For comparison, his mentor, the Hall of Famer Mike Krzyzewski had coached five years at Army and six years at Duke before taking his 1986 team to the Final Four in Dallas.

Scheyer began planning this campaign immediately after the disappointing loss to NC State in last year’s Elite Eight.

The Blue Devils’ leader made the difficult decision to rebuild his roster, keeping only Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster among key players from 2024. Scheyer knew he had the top ranked high school player Cooper Flagg coming in, along with four other talented freshmen. His mission was to work the portal for experience, support, and leadership.

With Sion James, Mason Gillis, who played in last year’s Final Four at Purdue, and Maliq Brown, Scheyer did exactly that. Scheyer has navigated his way through injuries, scoring droughts and occasional defensive lapses, always managing to push the right buttons.

On top of that he introduced his players to the Japanese philosophy “Kaizan,” which represents continuous improvement. The coach has pushed his players to get 1% better every day. And here they are headed to San Antonio.

NC native Sampson has long career with no championship

The Cougars are led by the highly respected Kelvin Sampson. A Native Amercian and member of the Lumbee Tribe, Sampson is the first of his race to coach a team to the Final Four.

Sampson, who was born in Laurinburg but grew up in Pembroke in Robeson County, coached Oklahoma to the Final Four in 2002, as well as Houston in 2021. Sampson began his career at Washington State in 1987, moving on to OU and Houston, with a two year stop at Indiana in between.

He has 723 wins against 310 defeats. While Scheyer is coaching in just his 3rd season, Sampson is working his 32nd campaign, a real study in contrast.

The road to the Final Four

Duke record: 35-3. Duke lost to Kentucky 77-72, Kansas 75-72, and Clemson 77-71. Duke’s average margin of defeat in those games is 4.5 points.

Houston record: 34-4. U of H lost to Auburn 74-69, Alabama 85-80, San Diego State 73-70, and Texas Tech 82-81. Three of those losses came in overtime. The average margin in those defeats is a mere 3.5.

Duke path to the Final Four: East Region wins over Mount St. Mary’s 93-49, Baylor 89-66, Arizona 100-93, and Alabama 85-65. Average margin of victory 23 points per game.

Houston path to the Final Four: Midwest Region wins over SIU-Edwardsville 78-40, Gonzaga 81-76, Purdue 62-60, and Tennessee 69-50. Average margin of victory 16 points per game.

Duke’s size, pace will be keys to the game

Duke front court: Cooper Flagg leads the way for Duke on 19 points per game, 7 ½ rebounds, and 4 assists. Though officially a forward, Flagg can handle the ball in the back court, part of what makes Duke so difficult to defend.

Mason Gillis is a key reserve at forward. He averages 4 points per game in 15 minutes. Gillis did not play in Duke’s last loss, at Clemson in early February. His versatility and experience were missed.

Duke starts another freshman, 7’2 Khaman Maluach at center. Maluach gets lots of dunks and so shoots 71% from the field. He is becoming more effective away from the basket and has a nice stroke at the free throw line. He grabs 7 rebounds per game to go with his average of 9 points.

The play of backup Patrick Ngongba is one of the emerging stories for Duke in the postseason. Ngongba plays 11 minutes a game scoring 4 points and 3 rebounds. He’s also an excellent passer as we saw Saturday against Alabama.

All of these four can defend, especially Flagg, who can really shut down the painted area. Maluach is a shot blocking threat. But 6’9 Maliq Brown is in a class by himself as a defender. Slowly working his way back from a separated shoulder, Brown can guard all five positions, including centers (he has long arms) and guards. Teams shoot just 43% from inside the arc against Duke.

Houston front court: The Cougars don’t have a player taller than 6’8 in their rotation, but some of their bigs do have a large wing span, just like Duke’s long-armed forward Brown.

J’Wan Roberts is the top forward, averaging 11 points per game and 6 boards. Joseph Tugler is also a top rebounder snaring 6 per game as well as scoring 6 points per game. Ja’Vier Francis splits time with Tuggler, chipping in 5 points and 4 rebounds.

Duke has an advantage over the guard-oriented Cougars up front in both size and depth.

Duke back court: Once again Duke has a significant size advantage. Caleb Foster is the only player shorter than 6’6. He stands 6’5. Tyrese Proctor is 6’6, Sion James 6’6, and Isaiah Evans 6’6. Kon Knueppel is 6’7. All can defend, and when the 6’9 Brown defends on the perimeter the Blue Devils can be very difficult to shoot over – ask Mark Sears.

Offensively Proctor has been red hot in NCAA play and now averages 12 points per game over the season and 41% from three. James and Evans both hit 42% from three. Also James excels at attacking the basket. Knueppel is no slouch from beyond the arc, hitting 40%. He too can drive to the basket, averaging 14 points and 4 rebounds per game.

This Duke team is a great passing quintet, averaging 17 assists per game, with Flagg’s 4 assists per contest leading the way. And the Devils excel at the free throw line, shooting 79% as a unit.

Houston back court: The Cougars may be smaller but these guys can all play, led by LJ Cryer who averages 15 points per game and shoots 42% from behind the line. Cryer can beat the defense on the dribble drive as well.

Emanuel Sharp averages 13 points per game and also shoots 42% from three. Milos Uzan averages 12 points for the well balanced Cougs and he shoots 46% from deep. Uzan at 6’4 is the tallest of the three, and he’s still two inches shorter than most of Duke’s perimeter defenders.

Houston also uses 6’6 Terrence Arcenaux some 21 minutes a game. He may play more given Duke’s size. 6’3 Mylik Wilson plays 18 minutes per game. Arcenaux and Wilson combine for about 12 points per game. H

ouston as a team shoots a little better than Duke from three, 40% to 39%. Duke shoots better overall 49% to 45%. Also Houston gets the edge in steals and blocks. The Cougars average eight steals and five blocks, each on better than Duke.

Intangibles: Houston has something of the home court advantage in San Antonio, making a 196-mile trip vs. Duke’s 1,176 mile trek. And presumably Cougar fans have bought lots of tickets. Houston has been highly ranked all season; early purchases could be made with some confidence.

Will Houston’s experience tilt the playing floor? In addition to Coach Sampson’s three decade experience advantage over Scheyer, Houston plays three grad students, a senior, a couple of juniors and one sophomore. No freshmen. Duke has two grad students, two juniors and five frosh.

Shooting in a dome is very different than shooting in the cozy confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium. Which team will better adjust to the very different background in the spacious Alamodome? Can either team successfully attack the basket if the jumpers don’t fall?

Duke holds opponents to 31% from three and 39% overall. Houston is a point better in each stat.

Finally, which team will control the pace? Duke plays mostly in the 80s and of course scored 100 against Arizona. Houston averages 74 points per game but played in the 60s during its two most recent NCAA wins. Tempo control could be a big factor in the outcome Saturday night, along with transition defense and half court offense.

Fans are in for a Tex-Mex treat

San Antonio is one of the best sites for the Final Four in my view, along with New Orleans and Indianapolis. I’ve covered two Final Fours at the Alamodome — in 1998 and 2004.

What’s to like? The weather is warm, and the famed Riverwalk is easily accessible. The Riverwalk is both beautiful and full of energy. As a lover of Tex-Mex food, I was in heaven at meal time. Fans will have a lot of fun in San Antonio.

The other bracket: It’s an all-SEC affair opposite Duke and Houston. Florida and Auburn played once this season, with the Gators winning on the Tigers home court 90-81. These two teams are looking to become the SEC’s first national champion in 13 years. Since Kentucky captured the much ballyhooed SEC’s last title in 2012, the ACC has won three NCAA Championships. Duke looks to make it four.

Source: wralsportsfan.com