By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

North Carolina is headed to Dayton to play San Diego State Tuesday in the NCAA Tournament First Four (9:10 p.m., truTV). The Tar Heels earned the very last at-large bid. How close was it? Selection Committee Vice Chair Keith Gill said if UAB had upset Memphis today, UNC would have been knocked out of the field.

Committee Chair Bubba Cunningham was not allowed in the room during discussions about Carolina. The Tar Heel Athletic Director did note that bubble teams were helped this year by the lack of upsets in conference tournaments. Last year five unqualified teams sprang upsets against opponents who had qualified for at large bids, and that kept five bubble teams at home. This year there was just one such upset, or “bid stealing” as some call it.

Back to the factors that made the difference for UNC, Gill noted the Tar Heels were 8-0 in Quad II games, had a strong strength of schedule, a strong NET ranking of 36, as well as a good WAB record—WAB stands for wins above the bubble. Gill said certainly the committee paid attention to the 1-12 Quad I record but added, “when you take all those things into consideration, the committee just felt they should earn that last spot over some of the other teams.”

No team has received an at-large bid in years past with just one Quad I win, but here in 2025, Xavier, with a Q-I record of 1-9 was also included in the field.

So the Heels are in after a roller coaster season. Let’s take a look back, starting with Friday night’s incredible comeback vs. Duke, for even though it was a loss in the end, the Tar Heels, if not for that comeback, would certainly not be getting on a plane to Dayton.

The up and down season

After a horrendous first half, North Carolina mounted a furious comeback against top seeded Duke. The Tar Heels trailed by 24 points with 17 minutes left. But then they turned up the heat defensively, forcing turnovers and missed shots, with their switching and trapping man to man.

Defense led to offense and the Heels repeatedly beat the Blue Devils down court, scoring 11 fast break points in the span of 15 minutes. UNC pulled within one, and when Tyrese Proctor missed the front end of a one and one, the Tar Heels had the ball shooting for the win.

Ven-Allen Lubin drew Khaman Maluach’s fifth foul with four seconds left. Lubin missed the first free throw. He made the second. But the tying point was erased when officials cited Jae’lyn Withers for a lane violation, an uncommon call to be sure. Duke held on 74-71.

Post game I asked Coach Hubert Davis if in his four year coaching career he had ever been part of a game where a lane violation was called. He recited his playing and coach stops in college and the NBA and then spent another 30 seconds describing how proud he was of his Tar Heel team. “I thank Jesus every day that I get to be their head coach,” he said. He did not answer my question so I tried again. “What about the lane violation?” His response: “I’m not going to answer that. We lost 74-71.”

Hall of Fame Coach Jim Boeheim said on television that he “had never seen that called in my 50 years in basketball.”

There was also surprise in the Duke corner. Kon Knueppel said “I’ve never seen that before, especially up one. That was interesting. But obviously we were pretty happy.”

Blue Devils Coach Jon Scheyer added: “I’m not sure that’s happened before. I’m trying to think back. I’m not sure in that setting, in that situation, where you see that.”

Lane violations are almost never called in the NBA. Internationally, the lane violation is not even part of the FIBA rule book.

And Duke was not disadvantaged by Withers moving. If anything his “false start” could have been a distraction to Lubin. But in the end Withers’ infraction closed the book on yet one more close Quad I defeat.

With the seventh most difficult schedule in college basketball, North Carolina had plenty of chances against the nation’s best teams.

The Tar Heels led then #1 Kansas by two with two minutes to play at fabled Allen Field House. But they lost 92-89.

In Maui the Heels rallied past a good Dayton team for an apparent Quad I win. But in December, the Flyers fell out of the NET top 50, making that a Quad II win

UNC took Michigan State, ranked #11 in the NET to overtime, but the Spartans won 94-91.

The Tar Heels led #4 Florida 84-82 with 2:13 to go. However the Heels did not score again and let another big one get away 90-84.

North Carolina’s lone Quad I victory came against UCLA in Madison Square Garden 76-74. The Bruins remain in the top 30 at #27.

Because of the Atlantic Coast Conference’s poor performance in November and December games against other power conferences, league play provided few Quad I opportunities.

UNC lost at Louisville on New Year’s Day 83-70. The Tar Heels whipped SMU in Chapel Hill by 15, but only wins against the top 30 count as Quad I wins at home. SMU is #46.

Carolina, as mentioned, is 8-0 in Quad II games, 7-1 in Quad III games, and 6-0 in Quad IIII. The only blemish is that 72-71 Stanford win on Jaylen Blakes’ buzzer beater. I should also point out the Tar Heels needed a miraculous comeback at home to subdue Boston College in overtime. That would have been a Quad IIII loss, and that comeback truly saved their season.

This team is at its best when attacking the basket. Against Wake Forest in January, the Tar Heels repeatedly settled for threes, putting up 32 and making just 8. Wake won 67-66. That was another near miss of a Quad I win as the game was played in Winston-Salem. UNC avenged that loss at the ACC Tournament, winning a defensive war 68-59. But here’s the thing-Wake Forest is ranked 69th and at neutral sites only games against top 50 teams qualify for Q-I, while in road games, teams 1-75 are Q-I opponents.

The low point in UNC’s season came as the calendar turned from January to February. The Tar Heels played three Quad I games in a period of 13 days. They lost all three: at Pitt by 8; at Duke by 17 in a game that was not as close as the score; and they lost by 20 at Clemson in the nadir of this Tar Heel season.

Memorably, the Tar Heels got a full week to prepare for a rematch with #62 Pittsburgh, but narrowly squeaked by at home when Panther star Ish Leggett missed a jump shot for the win.

After the Clemson debacle February 10, Hubert Davis shuffled the lineup. 6’9 Jae’lyn Withers, whose playing time had dwindled during ACC play, was reinserted at power forward, the four position. Ven-Allen Lubin, whose 230 pounds of strength benefits Carolina on both the low block and the boards, would start at the five. Drake Powell, who at 6’6 is three inches taller than Seth Trimble, got the nod at small forward, though Trimble would still get lots of game action coming off the bench. Jalen Washington and Ian Jackson, both of whom had started at times prior to mid-February, also became reserves, perhaps for defensive reasons.

The lineup changes improved the team in several ways. Ball movement got better. Withers provided a much needed three point threat. Defenses had to spread out more, giving Lubin more room inside. The Tar Heels became more effective playing inside-out. Most of all, this new lineup made the Heels better defensively and on the boards.

Back when they were 7-6 in the ACC, both team and coach knew they had to put together a long winning streak. “I think if you look at the trajectory of our whole season,” Davis said recently, the way we dealt with adversity, perseverance, and especially the last few weeks, we overcame all that. I think that’s a tournament team for you because that’s what March is all about. For a month and a half, we basically played must win games.”

North Carolina won six straight games to keep its NCAA hopes alive, with five of the six coming by double digits. The Tar Heels routed NC State by 24 and Virginia Tech by 32 points respectively.

Much of this success could be attributed to improved shooting. UNC in a month’s time boosted its three point shooting percentage from a woeful 32% to a respectable 37%. The overall percentage went up as well from 44% in mid February to 48% in mid March. In the ACC, only Duke shoots better.

Davis attributed this not so much to the lineup changes but to the type of shots the Tar Heels began generating: “One of the things we talk about is dominating points in the paint through penetration and offensive rebounding. Our rebounding numbers have grown a lot in the last month. We’re driving and we’re not settling for the good shot. We’re making the extra pass for the great shot.”

The step up in quality of play left UNC at 15-8 in games against the ACC, 22-13 overall.

However the new look Tar Heels were not quite good enough to beat Duke, going stone cold in the closing minutes of a tight game in Chapel Hill to lose 82-69, and then coming up one lane violation short in the pivotal game at the ACC Tournament. But then again, Duke is the nation’s best team with three potential top ten NBA draft picks. The Blue Devils excel at both ends of the floor, ranking in the top four in offense and defense.

But despite its 0-3 record against Duke, UNC now gets another chance Tuesday night in Dayton. Their opponent San Diego State is 21-9, with impressive early season wins over Houston and Creighton.

SDSU struggled some during the latter part of the Mountain West Conference season, beating the league’s lower echelon teams by smaller than expected margins. The Aztecs went 3-3 in their final six games, including a 62-52 loss to Boise State in the quarter finals of the conference tournament. SDSU had not lost in the quarters since 2008.

But there is a reason why San Diego State came limping to the finish line. The Aztecs’ freshman star Magoon Gwath, a seven footer who is both Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in the MWC, missed all of those last six games with a hyper extended knee. He warmed up for the Boise State game wearing a knee brace and Coach Jim Dutcher expects him to play Tuesday night. Indeed Gwath’s availability may have helped San Diego State get one of those final coveted bids because player availability is a factor the committee considers.

Heels’ path includes Rebels, Cyclones

Should UNC survive Tuesday in Dayton, the Tar Heels would meet Ole Miss Friday in Milwaukee. That would be a homecoming game for Seth Trimble, who played his high school ball in suburban Menomonee Falls.

Ole Miss is 22-11 with an SEC record of 10-8. Chris Beard’s team is led by Virginia Tech transfer Sean Pedula, who averages 15 points per game. The Rebels upset Florida, now a #1 seed, in early January. They also have big wins over Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas. The Rebs blew out Louisville in the SEC-ACC Challenge, although the Cardinals were shorthanded that night.

This Mississippi team is not big. There is only one starter taller than 6’6. That could play to Carolina’s advantage if and it’s a big if-the Tar Heels protect the basketball. During non conference play the Rebels averaged 10 steals a game and forced 16 turnovers per game with their lightning quick defense.

If the Tar Heels can get past Ole Miss, they would likely face Iowa State on Sunday. The Cyclones are 24-9 with some big wins on their resume. But ISU has lost point guard Keyshon Gilbert for the season with an injury. In addition, his running mate Tamin Lipsey suffered an injury against Cincinnati in the Big Twelve Tournament. He played in the Cyclones tourney loss to BYU but may be less than 100% as NCAA play begins.

UNC players, to their credit, remained positive during the closing weeks of the regular season that they would be a tournament team. Certainly they have looked the part these past six weeks. Now they get a chance to show they belong. And best of all, Jae’lyn Withers gets a mulligan.

Source: wralsportsfan.com