By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

Duke and NC State are each 2-3 in the ACC, but are both playing as well as anyone in the conference, apart from Miami and SMU. Duke (6-3) is already bowl eligible and NC State needs just one more win.

Devils stumble after strong non-conference start

The Blue Devils swept through their non-conference schedule and began league play with a dramatic 21 point rally to beat arch rival North Carolina. Duke lost in the fourth quarter at Georgia Tech, but won its second conference game by holding Florida State without an offensive touchdown. Manny Diaz’ team played a tremendous game against nationally ranked SMU but couldn’t capitalize on any of the six turnovers forced. Duke then ran off to a 28-17 lead at #5 Miami, only to see the Hurricanes outscore the Blue Devils 36-3 over the game’s final 25 minutes.

Still, Duke’s offense improved during the two losses and the Blue Devils possess the best pass defense in the league. But Duke’s confidence could be waning after coming up short in back-to-back games, albeit against the ACC’s two best teams.

NC State surging after tough early losses

It was a rough start for NC State with early one-sided losses to Tennessee and Clemson. The Wolfpack scored a character win over a Northern Illinois team that upset Notre Dame, but then suffered home conference losses to Wake Forest and Syracuse in back to back weeks. The program also lost star transfer quarterback Grayson McCall after he suffered multiple concussions.

New quarterback C.J. Bailey played like the freshman he is in his first few appearances but really stepped up his game after the Pack fell to 0-3 in conference play. Bailey hit a series of explosive plays in the pass offense as State rallied to beat the Cal Bears on the road. Then after a much needed bye week, Bailey and the NC State offense played flawlessly in piling up 59 points against Stanford, the most the program has ever scored in a conference game.

What to watch for: Duke at NC State

Duke run game vs. NC State run defense

The Wolfpack gave up two long touchdown runs to Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels. But Duke QB Maalik Murphy does not run, so that simplifies defensive assignments for the Pack against Duke. Star Thomas has been Duke’s best running back over the course of the season, but it was back up Peyton Jones who turned heads at Miami. Jones rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown; he was also Duke’s third leading pass receiver with three catches for 61 yards and a touchdown reception.

Duke averages just 107 yards per game rushing but uses its ground attack to set up Murphy’s passing. When a Blue Devil run moves the chains, Murphy will often follow with a quick strike pass to one of his many top receivers.

NC State ranks just 14th among run stoppers in the ACC, so the Pack will need an inspired effort if it is to make Duke a one dimensional passing team.

NC State run game vs. Duke run defense

Former Duke star Jordan Waters broke off a 94 yard touchdown run against Stanford, second longest in school history. And Hollywood Smothers has emerged as a breakaway threat, scoring the winning touchdown in the Cal game and racing 52 yards for a score this past Saturday against the Cardinal.

Kendrick Raphael missed the Stanford game with injury, and it could be a big deal if he can’t go against Duke. Raphael often gets the call on third and short.

Duke gave up 211 yards on the ground against explosive SMU but held the wide open Miami run game to just 125. The Blue Devils rank among the lower half of the ACC in stopping the run but can be quite effective at times.

This week, the Blue Devils must be conscious of Bailey’s athletic ability. Bailey is a legitimate threat on called quarterback runs and is adept at scrambling out of the pocket.

Duke passing game vs NC State pass defense

Maalik Murphy is streaky. His errant throws are part of the reason Duke converts just 31% of third downs-near the bottom of the league. But Murphy, who completes just 59% of his passes, can also catch fire, especially if the Blue Devils are running effectively. Murphy’s receiving corps is dangerous. Eli Pancol was dominant against SMU with 11 catches. When Miami put the clamps on Pancol, Sahmir Hagans stepped up with 9 catches for 139 yards against the Canes. Jordan Moore gave notice last week that he’s getting over his injury, with a tremendous catch for a touchdown against Miami. State has good corners in Brendan Cisse and Aydan White. The Pack allows 231 yards per game but has 7 interceptions. As we saw against Cal, the NC State secondary usually keeps receivers in front of the defense, not allowing the big play. If Duke hits on a couple of long passes Saturday, that could spell trouble for the Pack.

NC State pass offense vs Duke pass defense

Freshman C.J. Bailey has now quarterbacked NC State to two ACC wins. He played well in the Wolfpack’s come from behind win at Cal, and following the bye week hit 18-20 passes against Stanford for 238 yards and three touchdowns. Bailey directed six consecutive touchdown drives, calmly working through his progressions, connecting with his check downs, and throwing downfield. Like Duke, State has a number of talented receivers. Last week Bailey passed to Wesley Grimes, Keenan Jackson, KC Concepcion, Dacari Collins, and Noah Rogers. The Pack also gets big plays from tight end Justin Joly, a pass receiving weapon Duke currently lacks with the injuries to the Devils’ tight ends Jeremiah Hasley and Nicky Dalmolin. Bailey’s emerging maturity comes just in time, because passing against Duke will be a very different experience from throwing against the passive Stanford Cardinal. Duke pressures the passer. The Blue Devils rank fourth in the ACC in sacks with 26; they even sacked the elusive Cam Ward twice. Duke also fields a strong secondary led by Chandler Rivers, who has three interceptions and seven pass break ups. Because of pressure and coverage, Duke ranks #1 in the ACC in pass defense, giving up just 193 yards per game. State struggled to move the ball in September and early October. But with Bailey’s improvement, NC State now sports one of the six most efficient pass offenses in the league with 15 touchdowns against 7 interceptions and a completion percentage of 69%.

Special teams

D.K. Kaufman has provided a jolt for NC State’s kick returns. Against Stanford Kaufman returned three kicks for an average of 52 yards; his longest went 91 yards, although he did not score. State leads the ACC in this category. Both State and Duke have capable punt return men. Punting is essentially a standoff, however State’s Caden Noonkester should be the better rested punter. He did not punt until the game’s closing minutes last Saturday while Duke’s Kade Reynoldson was called on five times. I don’t’ see either team with an edge in field goal kicking. State’s Noah Vinesett is 11-15 on the season but has made just 2-6 from beyond the 40. State’s Dave Doeren turned to Colin Moore against Stanford. Moore made a chip shot 23 yard field goal but was perfect on 8 extra points. Duke’s Todd Pelino missed an extra point against SMU, as well as two field goals (one was blocked). His one bad night probably cost Duke a victory against the Mustangs. Pelino got back on track against Miami but he is just 11-16 on the year.

Time of possession, turnovers will tell the tale

Duke and State rank first and second in forcing fumbles, almost two per game. The Blue Devils, who also have 10 interceptions, probably need to force some turnovers in order to keep State’s improving offense from monopolizing time of possession. Maalik Murphy needs time on the field to get going. If he’s on the sideline for six or seven minutes, that increases the likelihood of a subsequent Duke three and out.

State converts 40% of its third down opportunities. Duke’s third down defense ranks third at 31%. Third down play could play a big part in the outcome Saturday.

Both teams have big play capability but execution in the red zone often plays a big part in rivalry games like this one. NC State has 20 touchdowns and 11 field goals in 37 trips to the red zone. Duke also has 20 touchdowns but just 6 field goals, with Pelino responsible for two red zone misses. The Devils have made 30 trips to the red zone. Statistically, NC State holds a slight edge in red zone defense, but note, Duke owns the season’s biggest goal line stand, stopping SMU four times inside the one yard line. Neither Duke nor State is particularly penalty prone.

NC State of course enjoys home field advantage this time. The Wolfpack suffered two home conference losses in October, but after the Stanford blowout “the Carter” will be rocking against Duke. It should be a close game and could come down to a couple of plays. Who executes on fourth and short?

One thing I feel confident about. Both offenses will play better than in last year’s 24-3 grinder. NC State could not move at all. Duke had a big running play, an 83-yard touchdown by Jordan Waters. Waters, of course now does his running for NC State.

Source: wralsportsfan.com