By Clark Gerber, WRAL Sports contributor

Starting this Thursday night, you’ll be able to watch football on your TV every week until mid-February.

I know, I know, the Hall of Fame Game and the rest of the NFL preseason barely count, but I’ve grown to appreciate the ramp up period until the real thing goes live in September.

If you’re a Carolina Panthers fan, however, you’re probably feeling a little less excited than normal. And judging by all the empty seats at “Back Together Saturday” last week, I’d say that’s a pretty fair assumption.

And you’d be justified for feeling a bit tepid.

The Panthers franchise has cratered since their Super Bowl run in 2015. They’ve made the playoffs just once in the last 8 seasons and bottomed out last year with a dismal, depressing 2-15 campaign.

I could absolutely sit here and write about all the team’s flaws and why they won’t make the postseason again this year… but why?

This time of year is all about optimism.

As Scott Van Pelt likes to say, “it costs the same” as pessimism, so why not look at things glass-half-full?

And believe it or not, I really do think there are several, legitimate reasons to feel good about the Panthers heading into the 2024 season.

Maybe not “10 wins, make the playoffs” good, but certainly enough to outperform expectations and give the fan base reason to believe again.

Dave Canales’ track record

Canales was touted as an elite offensive mind when he was hired as the Panthers’ head coach back in February. But after digging deeper into his history, his track record is actually even more impressive than I thought.

Dave Canales starting working directly with NFL quarterbacks in 2018, when he was named quarterbacks coach for the Seattle Seahawks.

In the six seasons since, his teams have ranked top 10 in scoring four times and made the playoffs five times.

Russell Wilson threw a career-high 40 touchdowns in 2020 with Canales as his passing game coordinator.

And in each of the last two seasons, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield have enjoyed breakout seasons and completely turned their careers around thanks in part to Canales’ help.

He has never been in charge of an NFL quarterback who didn’t succeed.

The only blip on the radar is Wilson’s disastrous 2021 campaign but, if you’ll remember, there was a lot of extra stuff going on with him that season so I’m willing to call it an aberration.

It remains to be seen if Canales can go three-for-three and successfully rehabilitate Bryce Young this season. But based on his history, I can’t think of many other coaches I’d rather have to take on the project.

Ejiro Evero is back

I’m not sure we made a big enough deal about this over the offseason.

Evero’s defense was decimated by injuries in 2023 and played opposite an offense that almost never spotted them a lead.

And yet, Carolina somehow ranked fourth in the league in total defense, allowing just 293.9 yards per game.

During a 2-15 season.

That’s borderline miraculous, which is why Evero got plenty of interest from other NFL teams this offseason and even interviewed for some head coaching jobs.

He’s clearly a good coach, which is why it was so important that Carolina brought him back.

Another year of continuity, fewer injuries and better complimentary football from the offense should make the Panthers defense a top ten unit again in 2024.

Especially if they figure out how to force turnovers, which brings me to my next reason…

It really can’t get worse than last season

The Panthers were historically bad at forcing takeaways in 2023, mustering only 11 of them in 17 games. (I did a deeper dive on this topic back in January.)

Sure, some of that you can blame on subpar personnel and lack of aggression, but there’s always some luck involved when it comes to turnovers.

Over the last three seasons, Carolina is tied with the New York Jets for the worst combined turnover margin in the NFL at -26.

In other words, they’re due for some positive regression.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Panthers are going to greatly improve their takeaway total in 2024, as well as produce more yards and more points on offense (not a high bar, but still).

That alone should translate to more competitive football and more wins, and then there’s all the off-field stuff to consider.

The general manager, head coach and quarterback finally appear to be aligned.

There won’t be any weird play caller drama, there likely won’t be any reports of coaching staff “Hunger Games,” and hopefully David Tepper can manage to avoid any more embarrassing headlines.

The vibes are better for the Panthers this season. The offensive weapons are better. The team should be better.

It’s as simple as that.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of offensive weapons, I’m starting to come around a little bit more on the move to bring in Diontae Johnson.

Should we expect him to be a true No. 1 target who racks up 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns this season? I would say no, but it is in the realm of possibility given his talent.

Johnson has been saddled with a really bad quarterback situation in Pittsburgh the last four years, and yet his underlying metrics have stayed remarkably consistent.

The dude just gets open.

Per Reception Perception, Johnson has a 76.6% success rate against man coverage over the last four years combined (640 snaps).

Against zone coverage, he gets open a staggering 85.9% of the time (511 snaps).

Double team and press coverage? Also impressive with 76.1% and 77.5% success rates respectively.

Call me crazy, but that seems like the exact type of receiver you would want to help out a 2nd year quarterback, not to mention a massive upgrade over DJ Chark.

A Young-to-Johnson connection could be just what the doctor ordered to revive the Panthers passing attack.

Favorable schedule

When you’re a last place team, the NFL usually doesn’t give you a gauntlet the following season and that’s true for the Panthers in 2024.

Carolina will have to play presumptive Super Bowl contenders Kansas City, Philadelphia and Dallas this season, but none of those matchups are happening until Thanksgiving.

Out of the first 10 games on the schedule, the Panthers face only two teams with an O/U win total of at least 9… and both of those games are at home (Bengals in Week 4 and Falcons in Week 6).

Translation: The Panthers should very rarely be outmatched in the first half of the season, which should allow them to stack a few wins together and build some confidence and belief.

In my opinion, that’s extremely valuable for a rebuilding team, especially with a new head coach at the helm.

It’s hard to buy in when you’re 0-4 out of the gate. (Or 0-6, as Frank Reich found out last year.)

Of course, projecting wins on paper is a whole lot different than actually getting it done between the lines, but with these factors at play, Panthers fans can take heart.

The worst is behind us.

At least I think so.

Source: wralsportsfan.com