Baseball Playoff Preview: Bracket superlatives, top players, predictions
For the final time with four classifications, the N.C. High School Athletic Association baseball playoffs are upon us. In this playoff preview, we hand out bracket superlatives, give favorites and dark horses for each region, and make championship predictions.
HighSchoolOT will have coverage of the baseball playoffs all the way through this year’s championships in Burlington and Holly Springs.
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4A East
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (21) Holly Springs at (12) Wake Forest – Not often do you get a third-round quality matchup between two 4A powers in round one. Holly Springs’ challenging schedule featured an appearance in the USA Baseball National High School Invitational, which docked its RPI. The Golden Hawks are the only team this year to have beaten the 1-seed D.H. Conley. On the other side is a Wake Forest team that has appeared in the past two 4A regional championship series. The Cougars have bounced back nicely after starting the year 10-0 and then dropping five of their next six. There will be a ton of college-bound talent on the field, including a potential pitching matchup between Iowa recruit Carson Crider and North Carolina signee Jake Cackovic.
Best chance at an upset: (19) Heritage over (14) Millbrook may be the “best chance” at a seeding upset, but the lowest seed that will be giving itself the best chance to pull off an upset is the 22-seed Broughton. On Tuesday, the Capitals will face the reigning 4A Eastern champion, Ashley. In March, the Screaming Eagles won this matchup via run-rule in Cary. This time around, N.C. State recruit Sam Harris, who has pitched to a 2.11 ERA and struck out 87 of 196 batters faced this season, would be projected to get the ball. If you’re Coach Morton and the Caps, you have to feel good about any matchup that lands on a Harris bump day, because in a region full of aces; few are better than their right-hander.
Hardest road: Laney and Cardinal Gibbons. The Buccaneers have ended the regular season scorching hot, and some late-game heroics down the stretch are reminiscent of Ashley’s run from a year ago. Round two could welcome in Millbrook, who defeated Wake Forest last week and came a run short of taking the season series from the 2-seed Wakefield. Round three yields a third showdown with revenge-driven Ashley or Apex Friendship, who has won 18 of their last 19. On the other hand, Cardinal Gibbons has to welcome the winner of the Wake Forest vs. Holly Springs game in round two before embarking on a possible trip to face Briggs McKenzie and Corinth Holders in round three. McKenzie struck out 18 Crusaders in a 1-0 win earlier this year.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- Cardinal Gibbons
- Corinth Holders
- D.H. Conley
- Wakefield
- Dark horse: Ashley. Admittedly, this is a weak pick as a “Dark Horse”. A 1-3 stretch in mid-April pushed the Screaming Eagles out of being a top seed in this year’s bracket. The core from last year’s state runner-up team remains, including Quinn Bentley, Cole Barnes, Cane Mehling, and Tanner Berry. After going all season with a target on their back, I think the 11-seed can handle the addition of a chip on their shoulder.
4A West
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (19) East Forsyth at (14) Charlotte Catholic – My favorite part about this region is that you can rarely go wrong when catching a first-round game. Three weeks ago, these were arguably two of the hottest teams in the state. The Eagles watched an 11-game win streak turn into a 1-5 end to the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cougars have gone 2-3-1 since pulling off a win over back-to-back state champion T.C. Roberson. The winner of this one will have much-needed momentum heading into round two.
Best chance at an upset: The 4A West is ripe for first-round upsets yearly. You can throw a dart and land on one. (25) Lake Norman at (8) Mooresville is a chaotic conference rematch, and if I were the 7-seed Hough, I would not love facing (26) Hopewell for the third time in the past eight days (despite winning both games last week by a combined 11 runs). The optics of (29) Davie, (28) Ardrey Kell, and (27) Southwest Guilford being seeded where they are is wild.
Hardest road: Yes. There are SO many directions that you can go here. South Caldwell’s early rounds are accommodating, but the later rounds will be loaded. Then you have a team like Providence who has Southwest Guilford round one, Weddington round two, and T.C. Roberson or Charlotte Catholic in round three. Sheesh. 4-seed Grimsley also has a steep journey with (29) Davie, (13) Asheville, and West Forsyth or Reagan.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- Charlotte Catholic
- Providence
- T.C. Roberson
- West Forsyth
- Dark horse: Asheville. Again, you can throw many teams into this mix, but Jay Secretarski nearly muscled the Cougars to a sweep of T.C. Roberson last week. Tae Trantham has pitched well, and Texas recruit Trent Maybin sits atop every opponent’s scouting report. If you are Coach Hillier, you have to like where your team is at right now. Weddington, Reagan, and Marvin Ridge are outside picks to go from a double-digit seed to deep in the postseason.
4A Predictions
4A East: D.H. Conley over Ashley
4A West: T.C. Roberson over West Forsyth
4A Championship: D.H. Conley over T.C. Roberson
Pitching depth will be pushed to the limit in the bottom half of the 4A West bracket. Teams like Roberson and Providence will have to get creative in a potential third round after facing Charlotte Catholic or Weddington three days prior. The Rams have proven that their depth is built for situations like this, and ultimately, that, paired with their championship pedigree, could be just enough. Conley’s calling card has been its offense, and if it can ride its red-hot momentum for a few more weeks, we could have the Vikings and the Rams in a battle of NCHSAA baseball blue bloods.
3A East
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (19) First Flight at (14) West Carteret – The Nighthawks and Patriots have identical 13-9 records entering Tuesday night. First Flight is stumbling into the game having dropped three straight, but wins over Whiteville, Perquimans, and Holmes are impressive.
Best chance at an upset: 25-seed Southern Lee will travel to 8-seed Southern Nash. The Cavaliers have the better record despite dropping three of four to end the year. Christian Cox and Bryan McCollum are two strong arms that the Cavaliers have to offer, and Coach Harrington is not a stranger to deep playoff runs in recent years.
Hardest road: Southern Alamance. The Patriots get the winner of that First Flight/West Carteret game in round two, and potentially face last year’s state runner-up, South Central, in round three. If they were to advance, 2024 regional runner-up Terry Sanford could await.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- J.H. Rose
- South Central
- Southern Alamance
- Terry Sanford
- Dark horse: West Johnston. The Wildcats venture into the playoffs as a 13-seed after dropping another thriller to South Johnston. They do have a strong resume that includes a win over Ashley three weeks back, and a favorable bracket which could present a rematch with the rival Trojans in round three
3A West
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (20) North Henderson at (13) East Lincoln – The Knights have gone through some inconsistent patches this spring but Stash Spear and Peyton Maybin have been capable arms atop their rotation. They will oppose a strong a East Lincoln lineup led by Evan Matile, Brody Hager, Brandon Washington, and Matthew Phuntek. There are a few fascinating games in this region, but this has the potential to be a thriller.
Best chance at an upset: This is one of the more comfortable upset picks across all classifications. 23-seed St. Stephens will travel to 10-seed West Mecklenburg, who earned a protected seed after finishing fourth in their split conference. The Hawks have allowed double-digit runs in seven of their eight losses this season. Three of the Indians’ nine losses have come by one run. Colt Briggs and/or Logan Laws should be capable enough arms to send St. Stephens to round two.
Hardest road: Rockingham County. The Cougars have been impressive with a 23-2 overall record and both losses coming to 4A opponents (Millbrook and West Forsyth). Round two features the winner of North Henderson/East Lincoln, and round three could be North Iredell or North Lincoln. Defending state champion East Rowan also resides on this half of the bracket should Hudson Deel and North Carolina recruit Nick Rumbley help carry Rockingham County far enough.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- Crest
- East Rowan
- North Iredell
- Tuscola
- Dark horse: Oak Grove. The Grizzlies have composed the most peculiar 14-10 season I have seen. They closed the year on a four-game win streak, lost four of five early in the regular season, got swept twice in-conference, yet have a resume that features wins over West Forsyth, Southwest Guilford, and NCISAA power Charlotte Christian. They also dropped games to West Stokes and Wesleyan Christian by less than three runs. The highlights in their resume speak to the talent of players like Carson Everhart and Kaden Hart. If the best version of them shows up, who knows what will happen?
3A Predictions
3A East: Terry Sanford over J.H. Rose
3A West: East Rowan over Tuscola
3A Championship: Terry Sanford over East Rowan
A rematch of last year’s 3A west final is plausible. East Rowan has put together a strong season despite the loss of Cobb Hightower from last year’s championship squad. Meanwhile, in the east, the Bulldogs have an impressive team full of high-end depth. Getting past Rose will be difficult, but I would expect last year’s regional runner-up experience to benefit Terry Sanford this time around.
2A East
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (17) Holmes at (16) SouthWest Edgecombe – Pinetops will host two conference-champion-level teams on Tuesday. The Aces are outscoring opponents 106-14 over their past six games, while the Cougars look to rebound from a 2-3 performance in their last five. SouthWest, led by Parker Gay and Chase Taylor, has thrown the ball well this season. It could be a thriller if they can tap into the magic that helped them start 10-1. A half-dozen players in Holmes’ lineup have 20 or more hits this year, including 71 hits and 89 driven in from the combination of Myles Cobb and Maddox Bass. Bass has a sub-1.70 ERA and 100 Ks on the bump.
Best chance at an upset: (19) Farmville Central has the star power to return home from (14) South Columbus with a win. UNC Wilmington recruits Trey Williford and Joe May can do it all for the Jaguars. The duo has a combined 179 strikeouts on the mound, and 70 hits (5 HR, 38 RBI) at the plate.
Hardest road: Ayden-Grifton. The Chargers’ second round matchup is either defending state champion Greene Central or 13-seed Midway who is 18-7 overall. The third round potentially features traditional 2A power South Granville or unbeaten East Carteret. If they can navigate through those rounds, they must face the top pod that includes 1-seed West Bladen.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- Bunn
- East Carteret
- West Bladen
- Whiteville
- Dark horse: Midway. The Raiders let Saturday’s tiebreaker with West Bladen get away from them thanks to a 6-run sixth inning. If they can churn up some early momentum this postseason, they could find themselves still standing by late next week. Wyatt Scott and Carson Tew help lead a strong core that will contend for several seasons beyond 2025.
2A West
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (21) East Burke at (12) R-S Central – The Cavaliers have won seven of their last nine entering Tuesday’s game. Maddox Mosteller and Colt Butcher are young contributors to watch against the Hilltoppers, who have claimed wins in 13 of their previous 14. College of Charleston recruit Drew Yelton will be someone you won’t want to miss.
Best chance at an upset: (23) Morehead’s record is a bit deceiving. The Panthers finished second in a strong Mid-State Conference with a team full of up-and-coming underclassmen.
Hardest road: West Stokes. Trinity and Randleman were the top 2A seeds from the Piedmont Athletic Conference and both would be projected to travel to King in the second and third round. If North Stanly comes back with a vengeance after dropping its only game of the season last week, the Comets will be West Stokes toughest test to date.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- Burns
- East Rutherford
- North Stanly
- West Stokes
- Dark horse: Lincoln Charter. Yes, they’re the 5-seed, but this bracket is top-heavy with four really strong contenders. The Eagles’ regular season schedule was a mixed bag of solid performances against challenging teams, several signature wins, and lopsided victories in a 1A/2A league. Freshman Reed Osborne has had a wonderful first season, featuring a half-dozen home runs. Seniors Evan Myers and Nate Rollins have also put up big offensive numbers.
2A Predictions
2A East: Whiteville over West Bladen
2A West: Burns over West Stokes
2A Championship: Burns over Whiteville
If we indeed get a Burns at East Rutherford game in round four, how the pitching lines up will be essential. This was an epic three-game regional final series a year ago, and a Putnam/Dato matchup would be electric. In a one-game scenario, Burns’ big three of Putnam, Toney, and McGowan is hard to pick against, especially with their late-round experience from the past two seasons.
1A East
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (18) Northside-Pinetown at (15) Falls Lake – Last year’s regional runner-up will hit the road in round one. The Panthers had a grueling non-conference slate and settled-in down the stretch to finish 6-4 in league play. Meanwhile, the Firebirds played to a sub-.500 record, but had seven games decided by three runs or less.
Best chance at an upset: Finding a lower seed to escape the 1A playoffs with a first-round is always difficult but let’s go with (19) Hobbton on the road at (14) Tarboro.
Hardest road: Bear Grass Charter. The Bears are in a half with the last four 1A East champions, Perquimans, North Moore, and Northside-Pinetown. The biggest test could come in round four with the 3-seed Pirates paying visit.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- Bear Grass Charter
- East Wake Academy
- Perquimans
- Voyager Academy
- Dark horse: Tarboro. The Vikings, despite being a 14-seed, have a nice record and some signature performances. In mid-April, they went 1-3 against Perquimans and Martin County with all four games decided by a combined six runs. Cole Craddock, the defensive MVP of last fall’s 1A football state championship, has struck out 66 this season while batting .547 at the dish.
1A West
Bracket Superlatives
Best first-round matchup: (17) Langtree Charter at (16) Corvian Community – These two played a few weeks back with the Cardinals sweeping the two-game series 2-1 and 7-5. The third time around will be fascinating.
Best chance at an upset: (23) Swain County travels to (10) Piedmont Community. The Maroon Devils have a pair of talented sophomores, Will Holden and Ayden Smiley.
Hardest road: North Stokes. The Vikings will welcome in Union Academy or last year’s regional runner-up Mount Airy in round two. Uwharrie Charter, the back-to-back state champion pays visit in round three, and top-seeded Cherryville awaits in round four.
Favorites and a Dark Horse:
- Cherryville
- Christ The King
- South Stanly
- Uwharrie Charter
- Dark horse: Draughn. After starting the year 1-5, the Wildcats have heated up. A strong senior core led by Jacob Mull, Griffin Stephens, and Appalachian State recruit Tate Jensen make Draughn a contender. A potential third round trip to Christ The King will be fun to watch.
1A Predictions
1A East: Voyager Academy over Bear Grass Charter
1A West: Uwharrie Charter over Christ The King
1A Championship: Uwharrie Charter over Bear Grass Charter
This has not been the most dominant year by the Eagles’ standards, but they have yet to drop a game to a 1A opponent this season. The 1A East has a lot of strong contenders, but until one can knock off Uwharrie, they should be favored.
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