Analysis: How strong is the correlation between ADM size and Wells Fargo Cup all-sports success in 2A?
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Analysis: How strong is the correlation between ADM size and Wells Fargo Cup all-sports success in 2A?

Posted on by Matthew Reynolds

Does size matter?

The next realignment will use only ADM to determine which 2A schools will go into 4A, 3A, and 2A (or even 5A?). The past realignment used other data, like ISP (the percentage of students in a school or group of schools who are eligible for free meals without submitting a meal application) and Wells Fargo Cup points, which are awarded based on all-sports success.

We broke up 103 2A schools (removing ones that opened in the fall of 2022 or later) into four groups — the first three by 25 schools each, and then the bottom 28 — in terms of their three-year Wells Fargo Cup point average and their 2023 ADM.

Just six schools finished in the top 25 for their three-year Wells Fargo Cup average in 2A while also being one of the 25 largest 2A schools at the outset of last year. Likewise, nine schools were in the bottom group of 28 in both categories.

There were significant outliers — 14 of the 53 smallest schools were in the top 25 in Wells Fargo Cup points while nine of the largest 50 schools were in the bottom 28 in Wells Fargo Cup points.

A full alphabetical list is at the bottom of this article with every school’s rank within 2A in these two categories.

Altogether, it gives some indication of which schools will do struggle in the new 4A or dominate the new 3A, and so on.

Schools that were in the top 25 in both 2A ADM and 2A Wells Fargo Cup points

  1. Seaforth
  2. Salisbury
  3. Newton-Conover
  4. Bandys
  5. East Burke
  6. West Stanly

Schools that were in the bottom 28 in both 2A ADM and 2A Wells Fargo Cup points

  1. Walkertown
  2. CHASE
  3. South Columbus
  4. Beddingfield
  5. Louisburg
  6. Madison
  7. North Wilkes
  8. Pasquotank County
  9. J.F. Webb

Schools in the bottom 53 of 2A ADM but top 25 in 2A Wells Fargo points

  1. Lincoln Charter
  2. Farmville Central
  3. Hendersonville
  4. Owen
  5. Midway
  6. Northeastern
  7. Pine Lake Prep
  8. NCSSM-Durham
  9. East Surry
  10. Camden County
  11. Raleigh Charter
  12. CSD
  13. Manteo
  14. Franklin Academy

Schools in the top 50 of 2A ADM but bottom 28 in 2A Wells Fargo points

  1. North Forsyth
  2. Lexington
  3. West Caldwell
  4. Anson County
  5. Bunker Hill
  6. Red Springs
  7. SouthWest Edgecombe
  8. West Craven
  9. Fairmont

Full alphabetical listing

  • Anson County: ADM rank 21st, WFC rank, 90th
  • Ayden-Grifton: ADM rank 67th, WFC rank, 79th
  • Bandys: ADM rank 13th, WFC rank, 25th
  • Bartlett Yancey: ADM rank 73rd, WFC rank, 81st
  • Beddingfield: ADM rank 82nd, WFC rank, 83rd
  • Brevard: ADM rank 42nd, WFC rank, 8th
  • Bunker Hill: ADM rank 22nd, WFC rank, 84th
  • Bunn: ADM rank 19th, WFC rank, 53rd
  • Burns: ADM rank 10th, WFC rank, 26th
  • Camden County: ADM rank 96th, WFC rank, 22nd
  • CHASE: ADM rank 77th, WFC rank, 92nd
  • Clinton: ADM rank 33rd, WFC rank, 11th
  • CSD: ADM rank 100th, WFC rank, 2nd
  • Cummings: ADM rank 40th, WFC rank, 12th
  • East Burke: ADM rank 18th, WFC rank, 18th
  • East Carteret: ADM rank 101st, WFC rank, 29th
  • East Davidson: ADM rank 64th, WFC rank, 41st
  • East Duplin: ADM rank 28th, WFC rank, 51st
  • East Gaston: ADM rank 14th, WFC rank, 54th
  • East Rutherford: ADM rank 69th, WFC rank, 65th
  • East Surry: ADM rank 95th, WFC rank, 10th
  • Eastern Wayne: ADM rank 45th, WFC rank, 55th
  • Fairmont: ADM rank 46th, WFC rank, 87th
  • Farmville Central: ADM rank 52nd, WFC rank, 15th
  • Forbush: ADM rank 38th, WFC rank, 64th
  • Forest Hills: ADM rank 8th, WFC rank, 73rd
  • Franklin Academy: ADM rank 103rd, WFC rank, 13th
  • Goldsboro: ADM rank 89th, WFC rank, 61st
  • Graham: ADM rank 62nd, WFC rank, 103rd
  • Granville Central: ADM rank 72nd, WFC rank, 101st
  • Greene Central: ADM rank 59th, WFC rank, 27th
  • Hendersonville: ADM rank 53rd, WFC rank, 21st
  • Hertford County: ADM rank 63rd, WFC rank, 80th
  • Holmes: ADM rank 97th, WFC rank, 69th
  • J.F. Webb: ADM rank 94th, WFC rank, 88th
  • James Kenan: ADM rank 57th, WFC rank, 94th
  • Jordan-Matthews : ADM rank 23rd, WFC rank, 70th
  • Kinston: ADM rank 70th, WFC rank, 91st
  • Lexington: ADM rank 11th, WFC rank, 93rd
  • Lincoln Charter: ADM rank 51st, WFC rank, 5th
  • Lincolnton: ADM rank 54th, WFC rank, 56th
  • Louisburg: ADM rank 85th, WFC rank, 97th
  • Madison: ADM rank 87th, WFC rank, 85th
  • Maiden: ADM rank 24th, WFC rank, 60th
  • Manteo: ADM rank 102nd, WFC rank, 16th
  • McMichael: ADM rank 47th, WFC rank, 40th
  • Midway: ADM rank 60th, WFC rank, 23rd
  • Monroe: ADM rank 3rd, WFC rank, 68th
  • Morehead: ADM rank 15th, WFC rank, 62nd
  • Mount Pleasant: ADM rank 17th, WFC rank, 71st
  • Nash Central: ADM rank 5th, WFC rank, 44th
  • NCSSM-Durham: ADM rank 81st, WFC rank, 4th
  • Newton-Conover: ADM rank 12th, WFC rank, 24th
  • North Forsyth: ADM rank 2nd, WFC rank, 96th
  • North Johnston: ADM rank 32nd, WFC rank, 48th
  • North Lenoir: ADM rank 7th, WFC rank, 63rd
  • North Pitt: ADM rank 30th, WFC rank, 57th
  • North Stanly: ADM rank 83rd, WFC rank, 45th
  • North Surry: ADM rank 35th, WFC rank, 36th
  • North Wilkes: ADM rank 88th, WFC rank, 77th
  • Northeastern : ADM rank 75th, WFC rank, 20th
  • Owen: ADM rank 58th, WFC rank, 14th
  • Pasquotank County: ADM rank 90th, WFC rank, 98th
  • Patton: ADM rank 50th, WFC rank, 52nd
  • Pine Lake Prep: ADM rank 78th, WFC rank, 1st
  • Princeton: ADM rank 93rd, WFC rank, 47th
  • Providence Grove: ADM rank 92nd, WFC rank, 67th
  • R-S Central: ADM rank 37th, WFC rank, 46th
  • Raleigh Charter: ADM rank 99th, WFC rank, 7th
  • Randleman: ADM rank 25th, WFC rank, 37th
  • Red Springs: ADM rank 26th, WFC rank, 102nd
  • Reidsville: ADM rank 44th, WFC rank, 28th
  • Research Triangle: ADM rank 98th, WFC rank, 34th
  • Roanoke Rapids: ADM rank 9th, WFC rank, 49th
  • Salisbury: ADM rank 6th, WFC rank, 6th
  • Seaforth: ADM rank 4th, WFC rank, 3rd
  • Shelby: ADM rank 49th, WFC rank, 17th
  • South Columbus: ADM rank 79th, WFC rank, 95th
  • South Granville: ADM rank 27th, WFC rank, 39th
  • South Lenoir: ADM rank 55th, WFC rank, 74th
  • SouthWest Edgecombe: ADM rank 36th, WFC rank, 89th
  • Southwest Onslow: ADM rank 80th, WFC rank, 50th
  • Southwestern Randolph: ADM rank 43rd, WFC rank, 32nd
  • Spring Creek: ADM rank 65th, WFC rank, 99th
  • St. Pauls: ADM rank 1st, WFC rank, 42nd
  • Surry Central: ADM rank 84th, WFC rank, 59th
  • T.W. Andrews: ADM rank 34th, WFC rank, 33rd
  • Trask: ADM rank 56th, WFC rank, 75th
  • Trinity: ADM rank 74th, WFC rank, 43rd
  • Walkertown: ADM rank 76th, WFC rank, 82nd
  • Wallace-Rose Hill : ADM rank 61st, WFC rank, 78th
  • Washington: ADM rank 29th, WFC rank, 35th
  • West Bladen: ADM rank 71st, WFC rank, 100th
  • West Caldwell: ADM rank 16th, WFC rank, 86th
  • West Craven: ADM rank 41st, WFC rank, 76th
  • West Davidson: ADM rank 48th, WFC rank, 66th
  • West Lincoln: ADM rank 66th, WFC rank, 30th
  • West Stanly: ADM rank 20th, WFC rank, 9th
  • West Stokes: ADM rank 31st, WFC rank, 19th
  • West Wilkes: ADM rank 68th, WFC rank, 72nd
  • Wheatmore: ADM rank 86th, WFC rank, 38th
  • Whiteville: ADM rank 91st, WFC rank, 31st
  • Wilkes Central: ADM rank 39th, WFC rank, 58th

Source: highschoolot.com