The National Hurricane Center is updating its “cone of uncertainty” to include predictions for inland areas, where wind and flooding can be more dangerous than coastal damage. This update will help forecast the location and intensity of tropical storms more accurately.

The National Hurricane Center, located in Miami, announced on Thursday through the X social media platform that a new, experimental forecast tool will be available by August 15. This is just before the typical peak of hurricane season, which starts on June 1.

The center stated in the post that this experimental graphic will effectively communicate the risk of wind hazards both inland and along the coast.

The typical cone has been utilized for many years to display the projected path of a hurricane or tropical storm. However, it primarily emphasizes the wind and storm surge along the coastlines, and experts consistently advise against solely relying on the center line. Inland areas can also experience fatalities and extensive destruction from heavy rainfall and powerful winds, as exemplified by Hurricane Ian in 2022 where 149 individuals lost their lives in Florida.

The objective of the enlarged prediction cone is to inform individuals who do not reside along a coastline about potential hazards, according to Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the hurricane center. The updated cone utilizes colors to indicate locations that may be at risk in a more extensive manner than previously. Rhome stated that if someone lives in one of these areas, they are at risk.

Experts say there is increasing evidence that climate change is causing more severe hurricanes, with rising sea levels and a higher likelihood of rapid intensification for developing storms. This results in more flooding and stronger storm surges that can cause damage to coastlines.

Following Ian’s rapid impact in the Fort Myers region – where there was a high number of casualties and extensive destruction – the storm continued to release heavy amounts of rain and knock down trees throughout a large portion of the state. Reports of flooding emerged in various areas, including Orlando and its popular amusement parks, Kissimmee to the south, Daytona Beach to the east, and the cattle and citrus-producing regions of central Florida.

According to the hurricane center, Ian caused rainfall ranging from 10 to 20 inches (51 centimeters) in central Florida.

Residents living near rivers were greatly and perhaps unexpectedly impacted. Following Ian’s trek through inland DeSoto County and the subsequent flooding of the Peace River in the community, Fire Chief Chad Jorgensen advised residents to evacuate, citing the river’s unpredictability and hazardous conditions.

The initial tropical storm of 2024 will be known as Alberto. In the year 2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recorded a total of 20 named storms, with seven of them being hurricanes. Hurricane Idalia was the only one to hit the United States, making landfall in the sparsely populated area of Florida’s Gulf Coast known as the Big Bend. This resulted in considerable flooding in inland areas.

Source: wral.com