The most recent computations from multiple scientific organizations depicting Earth breaking global temperature records in the previous year may appear alarming. However, researchers are concerned that the underlying causes of these figures could be even more concerning.

The Associated Press conducted interviews and sent emails to over 30 scientists to gather insight on the significance of the broken records. The majority expressed concerns about the potential acceleration of climate change, which is currently approaching the threshold of a 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 degree Fahrenheit) increase since pre-industrial times that countries were aiming to stay below.

Katharine Jacobs, a climate scientist from the University of Arizona, stated that the high temperatures experienced in the past year were a powerful reminder from Mother Nature. According to scientists, the rising temperatures of both air and water are amplifying the severity and frequency of hazardous events such as heat waves, floods, droughts, storms, and wildfires, resulting in significant consequences.

The previous year was quite eventful.

The latest calculations from two prominent American science organizations, along with the British meteorological service and a private group led by a climate skeptic, show that the average global temperatures have surpassed the previous record by 0.15 degrees Celsius, which is a notable margin.

A number of researchers involved in the computations noted that the climate exhibited unusual patterns in 2023. They ponder whether the effects of human-induced climate change and a typical El Nino were amplified by an unexpected anomaly, or if there is a larger, organized factor at play. As stated by NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, this could include the debated idea of a hastened rate of global warming.

A potential response may not be available until late spring or early summer. This is when a powerful El Nino, a cyclical phenomenon of warming Pacific Ocean waters that impacts global weather patterns, is predicted to diminish. Experts warn that if ocean temperatures, including those in deeper waters, continue to break records well into the summer, as seen in 2023, it could be a worrisome sign.

Most scientists surveyed by AP attribute the rise in global temperatures to the emission of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels. El Nino, which is currently reaching a high strength, was identified as the second-most significant contributor, with other factors lagging far behind.

According to NASA’s Schmidt, there are concerns surrounding the year 2023 due to its unusual nature. As more information is uncovered, the situation becomes increasingly unclear.

According to Schmidt and Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Service, one aspect of this is the timing of when the significant increase in heat began in 2023. This week, the service reported that the warming was at 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to reports, temperatures usually peak above normal during the end of winter and beginning of spring. However, in 2023, the hottest temperatures occurred in June and remained at unprecedented levels for several months.

According to Burgess, the deep ocean’s heat, a significant factor in overall temperatures, exhibited a comparable pattern.

James Hansen, a former climate scientist for NASA and a prominent figure in the study of global warming, proposed last year that the rate of warming was increasing. Although several scientists interviewed by AP believe this to be the case, some are firm in their belief that the evidence thus far only points to a consistent and predicted rise in temperature.

According to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, there is evidence suggesting that the rate of warming in the last decade has been slightly faster than the previous one. This meets the mathematical criteria for acceleration. However, this is consistent with predictions that warming would speed up, particularly as air pollution decreases.

In 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that the Earth’s average temperature was 59.12 degrees (15.08 degrees Celsius). This is 0.27 degrees (0.15 degrees Celsius) higher than the previous record set in 2016 and 2.43 degrees (1.35 degrees Celsius) higher than temperatures before industrialization.

According to Russ Vose, the global monitoring chief for NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, it seems that we have transitioned from the gradual increase in average global temperatures to a slightly warmer pattern. He also noted that he has observed a speedier rate of warming.

NASA and the UK Meteorological Office reported a warming of 2.5 degrees (1.39 degrees Celsius) and 2.63 degrees (1.46 degrees Celsius) respectively since the mid-19th century. Data is available from 1850.

The 2023 temperature, as measured by the World Meteorological Organization and announced on Friday, is 1.45 degrees Celsius (2.61 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial levels. This aligns with previous calculations made by Japan and Europe earlier this month.

A large number of climate experts did not believe it was possible to limit the warming to the 1.5-degree target set by the 2015 Paris agreement, which aimed to prevent the most severe effects of climate change.

In an email, scientist Jennifer Francis from the Woodwell Climate Research Center stated that she does not believe it is feasible to cap the average warming over multiple years at 1.5C. She believes it may be technically achievable, but politically unattainable.

Katharine Hayhoe, the chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy, stated that the sluggish progress of addressing climate change and the ongoing spread of false information driving it is not due to a lack of scientific knowledge or potential solutions. Instead, it is rooted in a lack of political determination.

Both NASA and NOAA said the last 10 years, from 2014 to 2023, have been the 10 hottest years they’ve measured. It’s the third time in the last eight years that a global heat record was set. Randall Cerveny, an Arizona State University scientist who helps coordinate record-keeping for the WMO, said the big worry isn’t that a record was broken last year, but that they keep getting broken so frequently.

“The speed of the ongoing transformations is what concerns me the most,” stated Cerveny.

According to climate scientist Natalie Mahowald from Cornell University, this is only a glimpse of what we can anticipate in the future, particularly if we persist in our inability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions at a sufficient rate.

This is the reason why numerous scientists who were contacted by The Associated Press are feeling worried.

Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University, expressed concern about climate change since the early 1990s, and her worry has only grown with time. She is particularly worried about the increasing global emissions that continue to move in the wrong direction.

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Explore more of AP’s coverage on climate and the environment at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment.

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Check out Seth Borenstein on X by following @borenbears.

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Source: wral.com