A recent study has discovered that severe winds and rain can result in larger and more severe desert locust infestations, and that human-induced climate change is expected to amplify these weather patterns and increase the likelihood of outbreaks.

The desert locust is a type of short-horned insect that can be found in dry regions of northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. This migratory species travels in large groups, known as swarms, consisting of millions of individuals. These swarms can travel long distances and have a major impact on crops, leading to famine and food insecurity. It is estimated that a swarm covering one square kilometer contains 80 million locusts, which can consume enough food crops in a single day to feed 35,000 people. The U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization has labeled this insect as “the most destructive migratory pest in the world.”

According to a recent article in Science Advances, the study predicts that these outbreaks will become more difficult to prevent and contain as the climate continues to warm.

According to Xiaogang He, a researcher at the National University of Singapore, the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather caused by climate change may contribute to the unpredictability of locust outbreaks.

He was optimistic that the research could aid nations in comprehending and tackling the effects of climate fluctuations on locust behavior, especially in relation to its consequences on farming output and food security. He also urged for improved collaboration among countries and control agencies at both regional and continental levels to promptly respond and establish early warning mechanisms.

Scientists studied the frequency of desert locust outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East from 1985 to 2020 using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Locust Hub data tool to determine their potential link to climate change. They developed and employed a data-based approach to investigate the patterns of these insects in order to identify potential factors contributing to outbreaks occurring over large geographical areas.

Out of the 48 nations affected, a study revealed that 10 countries, namely Kenya, Morocco, Niger, Yemen, and Pakistan, had the highest incidence of locust outbreaks.

The East African region experienced its most severe desert locust infestation in 25 years during 2019 and 2020. This resulted in widespread destruction of farmland, crops, trees, and other plant life, causing significant effects on food availability and people’s means of living.

According to Elfatih Abdel-Rahman, a scientist from the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology who was not involved in the study, the rising impact of climate change may result in significant damage to livelihoods in affected areas through decreased food production and higher food costs due to widespread desert locust outbreaks.

The study also discovered a significant correlation between the severity of desert locust infestations and environmental factors such as air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, and wind patterns. It was observed that desert locusts tend to thrive in dry regions that experience unexpected heavy rainfall, and the size of an outbreak is greatly influenced by weather conditions.

The occurrence of El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon that impacts global weather patterns, has been closely linked to larger and more severe desert locust infestations.

According to Douglas Tallamy, a professor of entomology at the University of Delaware who was not involved in the research, unpredictable weather and fluctuations in rainfall can cause sudden increases in plant growth, leading to a significant rise in locust populations.

Tallamy stated that as variability increases, it is reasonable to expect an increase in locust outbreaks.

According to Paula Shrewsbury, a professor at the University of Maryland who specializes in entomology, this study serves as a powerful reminder that societies must take action to address climate change and its consequences. She also emphasizes the need for global collaboration and strategic responses to events like the growing threat of desert locusts. Shrewsbury was not a participant in the study.

The research revealed that areas such as Morocco and Kenya, which are particularly at risk, still maintain a high level of danger due to locust habitats. Additionally, the study showed that these habitats have increased since 1985 and are expected to expand even further by at least 5% by the end of the 21st century, primarily in regions like western India and west central Asia.

The article discusses how the Rub’ al Khali, also known as the Empty Quarter, a desert in the southern Arabian Peninsula, was previously not prone to desert locust outbreaks, but has now become a hot spot for them. In 2019, following cyclones, the desert experienced uncontrolled breeding of locusts due to the presence of freshwater lakes.

According to the World Bank, locust infestations can have significant economic consequences. The cost of managing a locust outbreak in West Africa from 2003 to 2005 was over $450 million. The outbreak resulted in approximately $2.5 billion in crop losses.

Xiaogang, the author of the research, stated that nations impacted by desert locust infestations are currently facing additional challenges due to climate-related phenomena such as droughts, floods, and heat waves. The potential increase of locust threats in these areas could worsen the existing difficulties.

He stated that not addressing these risks could worsen the strain on food production systems and increase the severity of worldwide food insecurity.

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Source: wral.com