According to the Chinese government, there was a decrease of 2 million people in China’s population in 2023. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, as the number of births has been decreasing for seven years in a row and the number of deaths has increased after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions.

The death toll increased by 690,000 to reach 11.1 million, which is more than double the previous year’s rise. Experts in population trends attribute this increase to the aging of the population and the widespread COVID-19 outbreaks that began in December 2022 and lasted through February of the following year.

According to the statistics bureau, the overall population reached 1.4 billion. In 2023, China, which has historically held the title of most populous country, was surpassed by India according to U.N. estimates.

The decrease in the number of births is a result of a lower fertility rate, which poses a significant economic and social challenge for China in the long term. Despite efforts by the government, including relaxing the one-child policy to allow up to three children, women are still having fewer babies.

As the fertility rate decreases and life expectancy increases due to improved healthcare, China’s population is gradually aging. This could potentially hinder economic growth and put a strain on the government’s finances as they try to support a larger elderly population with fewer working individuals.

Specialists predict that the decrease in population will persist for several decades, regardless of any potential increase in the fertility rate.

According to Zuo Xuejin, a demographer and former executive vice president of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, the percentage of people aged 65 or older may increase to over 30% by 2050.

Earlier this week, the government released recommendations for promoting the “silver” economy and improving the quality of life for senior citizens. These guidelines involve increasing resources for geriatric hospitals and nursing care, supporting the production of age-appropriate clothing, food, and other products, taking action against scams targeted at older individuals, and simplifying TV operation for seniors.

The quantity of newborns decreased by 540,000, equivalent to a 5.6% decline. This was a smaller decrease compared to the previous three years which experienced double-digit percentage drops. In 2023, there were approximately 9 million births, which is less than half of the total number in 2016. These figures are estimated through surveys and do not account for Hong Kong and Macao. Every 10 years, China conducts a comprehensive census.

In the past, China implemented a one-child policy in an attempt to manage population growth. However, the country is now confronting a different issue. The government has been trying to promote more births by gradually loosening the policy between 2014 and 2016 to allow for a second child, and recently a third child in 2021. Unfortunately, these efforts have not been effective.

A growing number of individuals are postponing marriage or opting to not have kids. Even those who do decide to have children typically only have one due to the expensive cost of raising them in urban areas with intense academic pressure. Additionally, the number of women in their child-bearing years has decreased.

Municipalities in Inner Mongolia, China are providing rewards for families who have more children. According to a report from China National Radio, one municipality is offering 2,000 yuan ($280) for a second child and 5,000 yuan ($700) for a third child. Additionally, they are requiring employers to provide 60 and 90 extra days of paid maternity leave for the second and third child, respectively.

According to a report on a government website, in October of last year, President Xi Jinping instructed the newly appointed leadership of the All-China Women’s Federation to focus on guiding young people’s perspectives on marriage, parenthood, and family. The president emphasized the importance of implementing policies that support parenthood and address the challenges of an aging population.

He was quoted as saying that we should share positive stories about family traditions, encourage women to contribute to promoting the traditional values of China’s culture, and establish a new family culture based on civility.

The percentage of individuals within the age range of 16 to 59, considered to be of working age, decreased to 61% of the entire population, showing a steady decline. Meanwhile, the proportion of those aged 60 and above slightly increased to 21%. In China, the designated retirement age for men is 60 years old, while women can retire at 50 or 55 years old.

The exact number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is uncertain due to the abrupt lifting of China’s “zero-COVID” restrictions in December 2022. While the government has acknowledged approximately 80,000 deaths from early December to mid-February, experts believe the actual number to be significantly higher. Studies suggest that the death toll could have possibly reached 1.4 million or even 1.9 million.

According to China Daily, a state-owned English-language newspaper, an expert stated at a forum this week that the decrease in population this year is anticipated to be smaller due to the declining impact of the pandemic. Additionally, the upcoming year of the dragon, starting in February, is believed to be a fortunate time to have children.

However, Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University and vice-president of the China Population Association, stated that the decrease in China’s overall population will likely continue for an extended period and become a permanent characteristic.

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This report was contributed to by researchers Wanqing Chen and Yu Bing from the Associated Press.

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Keep up with AP’s news on the Asia-Pacific region at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific.

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This story has been corrected to say that 690,000 was the annual increase in the number of deaths, not the total number of deaths, and that the easing of the one-child policy began in 2014.