Written by Bob Holliday, a contributor for WRAL Sports.

On Wednesday, D.J. Burns made two crucial shots that saved NC State from losing to Notre Dame, who is currently ranked #181 in the NET rankings. Then on Saturday, Burns took on a passing role in a surprisingly simple victory against Virginia.

Tony Bennett’s bunch of course double teams every entry to the post. Burns passed out of the Cavalier traps four times, leading to three shots from beyond the arc and a backdoor layup. Burns only scored six conventional points but he accounted for 11 more.

Burns’ selflessness had a positive impact on his fellow teammates, leading to excellent ball movement against Virginia’s pack line defense. As a result, the Wolfpack was able to make 35% of their three-point shots and shot 62% (18-29) from inside the arc. Five different players from the Wolfpack made successful three-point shots, with Dennis Parker, Jayden Taylor, and D.J. Horne leading the way.

Their achievement created opportunities for easier shots near the basket. In previous years, the Cavaliers’ intense defense often forced rushed or unsuccessful shots as the shot clock ran down, but there were no instances of that on Saturday.

The State team’s offensive display was significantly improved compared to their close victory in South Bend, where they only made 3 out of 17 three-point shots and had a measly overall shooting percentage of 28%. This poor performance was due to a lack of movement and insufficient passing, as well as strong defense from Notre Dame.

The State team only had five assists in their game against the Irish, which is about one-third of the assists they had on Saturday against UVA.

The Keatts formula requires a team to make more three-point shots than their opponent and also have fewer turnovers. In the game between NC State and Virginia, NC State made 28 three-pointers compared to Virginia’s 15. Despite both teams having similar shooting percentages, the extra three-point shots made by NC State proved to be the deciding factor in their 76-60 win. Additionally, NC State forced Virginia to commit 8 turnovers while only having 6 themselves. This is the first time this season that Virginia has had more turnovers than their opponent.

The Virginia win is State’s best of the season as Bennett’s team is ranked #55 in the NET. NC State, currently #65, needs more wins like this one Saturday to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume.

The North Carolina team is making progress.

UNC and NC State both have the same record of 3-0 in the ACC and 11-3 overall. However, UNC has risen to the #10 spot in the NET rankings. Despite facing a challenging schedule, UNC has only suffered losses against Villanova in overtime (ranked #34 in NET), Kentucky (#17 in NET), and UConn (#7 in NET). On the other hand, they have secured wins against Arkansas, which was considered a Quad I team at the time, as well as Tennessee (#5 in NET) and Oklahoma (#22 in NET). Last week, UNC added another Quad I win to their record by defeating Pitt (#53 in NET). This past Saturday, they claimed a significant victory against Clemson at Clemson, with the Tigers ranked #23 in the NET and holding the ACC’s top victory as a conference by beating #6 Alabama on their home court.

UNC’s defense was key in their victory at Littlejohn, with the exception of Ian Schiefflin’s impressive performance of 16 points, 11 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 5 steals. However, the Tar Heels were able to neutralize Clemson’s top players, P.J. Hall and Joe Girardi. Armando Bacot held Hall to only 5 out of 13 shots and 5 rebounds, while the entire UNC team worked together to limit Girardi to just one basket out of ten attempts.

Clemson’s three point attempts were largely unsuccessful, with only one successful shot out of 18. Carolina’s defense beyond the arc was particularly strong.

Since mid-December, the UNC team has not permitted over 69 points in a single game. In fact, their last three opponents have only managed to score 60, 57, and 55 points respectively.

The University of North Carolina’s basketball team, the Tar Heels, relied on their strong defensive performance during their game against Clemson due to their offense struggling in important aspects. UNC failed to score any points during fast breaks on Saturday and also had 10 turnovers. Additionally, they committed more fouls than Clemson and gave the Tigers an advantage of 5 free points at the free throw line. Despite being one of the top teams in the country in drawing fouls, UNC only attempted 12 free throws and made 7 of them during the game at Clemson.

In addition, the majority of UNC’s top scorers had a poor shooting performance. Only Bacot, who shot 6 out of 11, and Cormac Ryan, who shot 4 out of 8, had a 50% success rate. The remaining starters and key reserve Seth Trimble combined for a total of 10 out of 30 shots made.

However, the Tar Heels were able to recover 40% of their missed shots and showed strong control of the rebounding on both ends of the court. Bacot alone secured 16 rebounds.

Additionally, this group of players successfully made critical three-point shots at crucial moments. In a five-minute period of the second half, Harrison Ingram, R.J. Davis, Paxson Wojcik, and Trimble all made significant shots from long range. Despite trailing by two points before this burst, UNC took the lead by four at the eight-minute mark. The team then extended their lead to secure their victory.

However, UNC will need to improve their offensive performance on Wednesday evening at PNC Arena.

What to look out for in the UNC vs NC State matchup.

North Carolina has a significant advantage in free throw attempts and success rate in the ACC, while NC State commits an average of 15 fouls per game. Can NC State prevent North Carolina from getting to the free throw line like Clemson did? Additionally, NC State ranks 11th in the conference in free throw shooting. Will the Wolfpack have a strong performance at the line, possibly shooting 75%?

Can NC State maintain their lead in the ACC for turnover margin? Will players like Jayden Taylor and D.J. Horne be able to steal possessions for the Wolfpack? UNC, on the other hand, averages 10 turnovers per game. If NC State can force live ball turnovers, they can gain an advantage in fast break points, which would be crucial against UNC’s improving half court defense.

NC State is one of the top teams in the league when it comes to shooting three-point shots, which aligns with Coach Keatts’ beliefs. The team has a decent success rate of 34% from beyond the arc, but their rival UNC is even more formidable, holding opponents to a mere 30%. On the offensive end, UNC may attempt fewer three-pointers, but they have a higher success rate of 36%, led by Davis. On the defensive side, NC State ranks 12th in the league with opponents averaging a 33% success rate against them from three-point range.

Can D.J. Burns successfully reach his desired locations on the court? In Saturday’s game, Bacot effectively prevented P.J. Hall from playing in his preferred areas. Since UNC does not use a double team on the post, Burns will have fewer opportunities to pass like he did against UVA. Can he outplay Bacot one-on-one? Additionally, can Burns effectively defend against Bacot without committing fouls?

In December, UNC was significantly out-rebounded by UConn, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, resulting in two losses out of three games. However, they improved their rebounding against Pitt and Clemson and appear to have regained their skills in this area. Can NC State, who falls somewhere in the middle of the ACC in rebounding statistics, successfully compete on the boards, particularly against Bacot who leads the league with an average of 11 rebounds per game?

NC State’s bench was a major contributor in their victory against Virginia, with a total of 21 points scored. Ben Middlebrooks, who could play a crucial role against Bacot, contributed 8 points. Additionally, Michael O’Connell has been receiving increased playing time and has been making a positive impact. In Saturday’s game, O’Connell recorded 5 of State’s 14 assists in just 27 minutes on the court. The Pack’s half court offense seems to function better with O’Connell on the court. On the other hand, UNC saw 10 players score in their game against Clemson, as Coach Hubert Davis is utilizing his bench more. Trimble, a 6’3 athlete, is the team’s most versatile substitute, able to defend, rebound, attack the basket, and assist in running the offense. While Elliott Cadeau starts, he has a tendency to commit fouls. In Saturday’s game, Cadeau played for 19 minutes while Trimble played for 21. Jalen Washington and Jae’lyn Withers also provide bench support for UNC. The outcome of Wednesday night’s game may very well be determined by the performance of each team’s bench players.

Bacot guided UNC to a victory of 84-74 at PNC Arena in 2022. In the previous year, each team emerged victorious on their respective home courts. The significant development is that NC State has been performing exceptionally well at PNC Arena, winning 22 out of their last 24 games and maintaining an undefeated record this season.

I am eagerly anticipating the Wednesday evening start of the game.

Source: wralsportsfan.com