The most recent version of our prediction for the eight cutoff lines in the NCHSAA classification.
Sport

The most recent version of our prediction for the eight cutoff lines in the NCHSAA classification.

Posted on by Matthew Reynolds

Since our previous simulation of potential realignment for the N.C. High School Athletic Association in 2025, there have been some recent changes.

Before the official announcement of the NCHSAA transitioning to eight classifications, we had already obtained the ADM numbers and made projections eight weeks in advance. However, there were some details that were previously unavailable but are now accounted for.

Initially, four additional educational institutions will become members of the NCHSAA in the upcoming year, having been officially sanctioned in November. According to this new framework, they are expected to fall under the 2A or 1A classification.

Next fall, a new high school called Ballantyne Ridge will open in Charlotte and will be recognized by the NCHSAA in the spring. This will add an 8A school to the mix.

The method for determining class division remains unchanged – identify a number that can be evenly divided among all seven classes, including 1A. After incorporating five additional schools to reach a total of 441, the ideal number for 1A is 56 and 55 for the other classes.

You could also do 49 for 1A and 56 for the rest. That would give extra cushion for more charter schools that are likely to join in the four-year realignment period that starts in 2025. If this model was used, it would make the following changes to what we have below: the largest 7A (Cuthbertson) would be moved up to 8A, the largest two 6A schools would to go 7A, the largest three 5A schools would go to 6A, and so on.

Our latest model assigns 56 for 1A and 55 for the remaining classes, ensuring equal opportunity for all classes to have their own postseason in each sport. Several sports will have combined classifications for state titles, similar to current ones such as 1A/2A girls golf, 1A/2A swimming, and 3A/2A/1A boys and girls lacrosse.

Be sure to check out my article where I discuss how I would approach other questions with eight categories, such as playoffs.

8A

  1. Ardrey Kell—3671
  2. Myers Park—3557
  3. South Mecklenburg—3331
  4. Enloe—2831
  5. Apex Friendship—2754
  6. Chambers—2747
  7. Hough—2563
  8. Panther Creek—2536
  9. Laney—2521
  10. Leesville Road—2500
  11. Hoke County—2465
  12. Wakefield—2449
  13. East Mecklenburg—2431
  14. Millbrook—2424
  15. Apex—2414
  16. Broughton—2383
  17. Palisades—2373
  18. Corinth Holders—2369
  19. Hoggard—2350
  20. Providence—2335
  21. Green Hope—2323
  22. West Forsyth—2312
  23. North Mecklenburg—2309
  24. Mallard Creek—2306
  25. Athens Drive—2297
  26. Garinger—2289
  27. Rolesville—2288
  28. Pinecrest—2280
  29. Reagan—2264
  30. Jordan—2220
  31. Northwest Guilford—2215

  32. The projected enrollment for the new school, Ballantyne Ridge, is 2200 students.

  33. Green Level—2139
  34. Independence—2133
  35. Richmond—2110
  36. Holly Springs—2103
  37. Cary—2101
  38. Ashley—2071
  39. Willow Spring—2051
  40. Wake Forest—2051
  41. Marvin Ridge—2050
  42. Overhills—2046
  43. Lake Norman—2044
  44. Jack Britt—2015
  45. Grimsley—2010
  46. West Charlotte—2009
  47. Clayton—2007
  48. Hopewell—1983
  49. Riverside—1982
  50. Lumberton—1970
  51. Cleveland—1959
  52. Topsail—1958
  53. Mooresville—1954
  54. Butler—1953
  55. Davie County—1932

7A

  1. In 1887, Cuthbertson proposed the following: if there were 49 teams in division 1A and 56 teams in the remaining divisions, this would be the smallest division 8A.
  2. South Garner—1855
  3. Weddington—1849
  4. West Mecklenburg—1845
  5. Southeast Raleigh—1821
  6. West Cabarrus—1817
  7. Rocky River—1810
  8. Heritage—1806
  9. Page—1798
  10. Hillside—1793
  11. Parkland—1793
  12. R.J. Reynolds—1775
  13. South Iredell—1753
  14. Southern Durham—1750
  15. Porter Ridge—1746
  16. Cox Mill—1738
  17. Fuquay-Varina—1736
  18. East Forsyth—1715
  19. A.L. Brown—1715
  20. Pine Forest—1704
  21. D.H. Conley—1697
  22. Southwest Guilford—1693
  23. McDowell County—1681
  24. Knightdale—1676
  25. East Wake—1672
  26. Hickory Ridge—1664
  27. Chapel Hill—1662
  28. West Johnston—1660
  29. Garner—1652
  30. South Central—1633
  31. Sanderson—1632
  32. Purnell Swett—1619
  33. Middle Creek—1610
  34. Olympic—1609
  35. New Bern—1609
  36. Smithfield-Selma—1608
  37. Cape Fear—1585
  38. Cardinal Gibbons—1583
  39. South Caldwell—1579
  40. Watauga—1576
  41. Freedom—1574
  42. Seventy-First—1571
  43. Scotland—1568
  44. Ben L. Smith—1561
  45. New Hanover—1559
  46. Northern Durham—1554
  47. South View—1552
  48. T.C. Roberson—1546
  49. J.H. Rose—1540
  50. Glenn—1536
  51. North Brunswick—1536
  52. Berry Academy—1535
  53. Harnett Central—1499
  54. Ragsdale—1497
  55. West Brunswick—1493

6A

  1. Gray’s Creek—1483

  2. The school Western Guilford has a total of 1476 students. Please note that if there were 49 teams in the 1A division and 56 teams in the other divisions, Western Guilford would have the smallest number of students in the 7A division.

  3. Asheville—1469
  4. Lee County—1462
  5. Mount Tabor—1444
  6. East Chapel Hill—1443
  7. Jacksonville—1429
  8. Alexander Central—1405
  9. Dudley—1399
  10. Union Pines—1398
  11. South Johnston—1378
  12. Northern Guilford—1376
  13. Western Harnett—1375
  14. Eastern Guilford—1375
  15. Sun Valley—1373
  16. Harding—1367
  17. Vance County—1355
  18. Westover—1346
  19. Terry Sanford—1336
  20. Southeast Guilford—1311
  21. Triton—1310
  22. Asheboro—1309
  23. Charlotte Catholic—1308
  24. Ashbrook—1307
  25. Central Cabarrus—1299
  26. Kings Mountain—1299
  27. Piedmont—1297
  28. A.C. Reynolds—1287
  29. Franklin—1274
  30. Orange—1272
  31. High Point Central—1255
  32. St. Stephens—1251
  33. Franklinton—1244
  34. White Oak—1219
  35. Person—1219
  36. E.E. Smith—1216
  37. Hickory—1215
  38. Williams—1214
  39. Southern Alamance—1206
  40. Atkins—1189
  41. St. Pauls—1188
  42. Southern Nash—1180
  43. Dixon—1179
  44. Swansboro—1176
  45. Southern Lee—1176
  46. South Brunswick—1173
  47. North Forsyth—1166
  48. Northern Nash—1165
  49. Northwest Cabarrus—1152
  50. Western Alamance—1145
  51. Cedar Ridge—1141
  52. Enka—1140
  53. Eastern Alamance—1137
  54. North Lincoln—1135
  55. Montgomery Central—1134

5A

  1. Douglas Byrd—1133
  2. Rocky Mount—1129
  3. Jesse Carson—1122 (note: if there were 49 teams in 1A and 56 in the rest, then this would be the smallest 6A)
  4. Jay M. Robinson—1121
  5. Erwin—1120
  6. C.B. Aycock—1118
  7. Northeast Guilford—1109
  8. Forestview—1105
  9. Hunter Huss—1105
  10. West Carteret—1100
  11. Crest—1095
  12. Hunt—1094
  13. East Lincoln—1087
  14. Monroe—1077
  15. Southern Wayne—1073
  16. West Rowan—1071
  17. Durham School of the Arts—1062
  18. West Henderson—1059
  19. Seaforth—1059
  20. North Gaston—1058
  21. East Rowan—1057
  22. Havelock—1056
  23. Northside of Jacksonville—1051
  24. Parkwood—1041
  25. Richlands—1034
  26. Currituck County—1032
  27. North Henderson—1028
  28. Southern Guilford—1022
  29. Fike—1018
  30. Nash Central—1015
  31. North Buncombe—1013
  32. North Iredell—1010
  33. Rockingham County—1000
  34. Oak Grove—997
  35. Concord—983
  36. Salisbury—979
  37. South Point—978
  38. North Lenoir—977
  39. Hibriten—970
  40. South Rowan—966
  41. Croatan—960
  42. East Henderson—956
  43. Stuart Cramer—948
  44. Statesville—946
  45. Fred T. Foard—934
  46. North Davidson—925
  47. Forest Hills—922
  48. Roanoke Rapids—915
  49. Burns—913
  50. Southeast Alamance—911
  51. Lexington—910
  52. Tuscola—908
  53. First Flight—907
  54. Pisgah—907
  55. Newton-Conover—907

4A

  1. Bandys—906
  2. East Gaston—897
  3. Morehead—896
  4. West Caldwell—896 (note: if there were 49 teams in 1A and 56 in the rest, then this would be the smallest 5A)
  5. Mount Pleasant—895
  6. East Burke—893
  7. Bunn—889
  8. Ashe County—889
  9. Central Davidson—887
  10. Smoky Mountain—886
  11. West Stanly—882
  12. Bunker Hill—880
  13. Anson County—880
  14. Jordan-Matthews—879
  15. Maiden—875
  16. Carrboro—873
  17. Randleman—866
  18. South Granville—862
  19. Red Springs—862
  20. East Duplin—860
  21. Washington—847
  22. Central Academy—846
  23. West Iredell—844
  24. North Pitt—839
  25. Ledford—838
  26. West Stokes—836
  27. North Johnston—828
  28. Clinton—822
  29. T.W. Andrews—817
  30. North Surry—813
  31. SouthWest Edgecombe—813
  32. Uwharrie Charter—812
  33. R-S Central—812
  34. Forbush—811
  35. Wilkes Central—809
  36. Cummings—807
  37. West Craven—806
  38. Brevard—805
  39. Southwestern Randolph—804
  40. Lake Norman Charter—801
  41. Reidsville—801
  42. Eastern Wayne—797
  43. Fairmont—797
  44. Carver—783
  45. McMichael—782
  46. West Davidson—777
  47. Shelby—775
  48. Patton—774
  49. Lincoln Charter—772
  50. Hendersonville—771
  51. Farmville Central—771
  52. Lincolnton—768
  53. South Lenoir—763
  54. Trask—763
  55. James Kenan—761

3A

  1. Owen—760
  2. Greene Central—757
  3. Midway—752
  4. Wallace-Rose Hill—749

  5. The smallest 4A would be Graham—748 if there were 49 teams in 1A and 56 teams in the remaining categories.

  6. Hertford County—747
  7. Pender—740
  8. East Davidson—736
  9. Spring Creek—734
  10. West Lincoln—733
  11. Northwood—732
  12. Ayden-Grifton—724
  13. Martin County—720
  14. West Wilkes—711
  15. East Rutherford—707
  16. Kinston—695
  17. West Bladen—694
  18. Draughn—692
  19. Granville Central—691
  20. Trinity—689
  21. Bartlett Yancey—689
  22. Northeastern—683
  23. Walkertown—681
  24. Pine Lake Prep—680
  25. CHASE—680
  26. South Columbus—680
  27. Southwest Onslow—676
  28. NCSSM-Durham—674
  29. Beddingfield—668
  30. North Stanly—667
  31. Surry Central—662
  32. Louisburg—660
  33. Wheatmore—657
  34. North Wilkes—633
  35. Goldsboro—632
  36. Pasquotank County—627
  37. Whiteville—625
  38. Eastern Randolph—623
  39. Union Academy—617
  40. Providence Grove—616
  41. Princeton—614
  42. Mount Airy—614
  43. Mountain Heritage—612
  44. J.F. Webb—610
  45. Piedmont Community—609
  46. North Moore—607
  47. East Surry—592
  48. Thomasville—592
  49. Polk County—590
  50. Avery County—587
  51. South Stokes—587
  52. Camden County—585
  53. Holmes—581
  54. North Rowan—572
  55. Bertie—572

2A

  1. Queens Grant—568
  2. Research Triangle—562
  3. Raleigh Charter—560
  4. CSD—559
  5. Swain County—555

  6. East Bladen High School has a total of 547 students. This number is significant because if there were 49 teams in the 1A division and 56 teams in all other divisions, East Bladen would have the smallest student population in the 3A division.

  7. Mountain Island Charter—541
  8. Starmount—541
  9. East Carteret—541
  10. Bessemer City—535
  11. Perquimans—534
  12. Wake Prep—533
  13. Albemarle—531
  14. Highland Tech—528
  15. Manteo—525
  16. East Wilkes—522
  17. Warren County—517
  18. Franklin Academy—515
  19. Mitchell—509
  20. Cherryville—500
  21. South Stanly—493
  22. Tarboro—492
  23. Hobbton—486
  24. Union—477
  25. Bradford Prep—474
  26. Lakewood—474
  27. Langtree Charter—467
  28. Piedmont Classical—463
  29. Gates County—453
  30. Bishop McGuinness—452
  31. West Columbus—448
  32. Rosewood—441
  33. Corvian Community—436
  34. Pamlico County—429
  35. Southside—428
  36. Murphy—426
  37. Lejeune—422
  38. Elkin—421
  39. Cornerstone Charter—419
  40. North Duplin—419
  41. Voyager Academy—418
  42. Christ the King—416
  43. Cherokee—413
  44. Sugar Creek Charter—409
  45. Alleghany—408
  46. Northampton County—407
  47. Gray Stone Day—404

  48. Phoenix Academy has an anticipated enrollment of 400 students, including new members.

  49. Johnston-ALA has a projected enrollment of 400 as a new member.

  50. East Wake Academy—398
  51. Thomas Jefferson—397
  52. Northside of Beaufort County—392
  53. Northwest Halifax—392
  54. Henderson Collegiate—390
  55. South Davidson—388

1A

  1. Madison—387
  2. Roxboro Community—379
  3. Eno River Academy—378
  4. Hayesville—372
  5. KIPP GCP Pride—371
  6. East Columbus—370

  7. In Triad Math and Science, there were 366 participants. This school would be the smallest in the 2A division if there were 49 teams in the 1A division and 56 teams in the other divisions.

  8. Falls Lake Academy—361
  9. Triangle Math and Science—360
  10. Chatham Central—339
  11. Bethany Community—338
  12. Vance Charter—334
  13. Washington County—330
  14. Robbinsville—329
  15. Ascend Leadership—323
  16. NC Leadership Academy—315
  17. North Stokes—310
  18. Southern Wake Academy—306
  19. North East Carolina Prep—305
  20. NCSSM-Morganton—300
  21. Jones—289
  22. Rosman—269
  23. Weldon—263
  24. Oxford Prep—251
  25. Bear Grass Charter—243
  26. Clover Garden—241
  27. Southeast Halifax—240
  28. Neuse Charter—236
  29. Carolina International—236
  30. Rocky Mount Prep—233
  31. Andrews—221
  32. Cape Hatteras—203

  33. The projected enrollment for new members at Summit Charter is 200.

  34. New member Jackson Day is projected to have an enrollment of 200.

  35. Chatham Charter—198
  36. Wilson Prep—196
  37. North Edgecombe—194
  38. Columbia—190
  39. Excelsior Classical—182
  40. Woods Charter—181
  41. College Prep & Leadership—178
  42. River Mill Academy—173
  43. Apprentice Academy—160
  44. Valor Preparatory—160
  45. Winston-Salem Prep—152
  46. Tri-County Early College—150
  47. Hiwassee Dam—144
  48. Millennium Charter—128
  49. Highlands—97
  50. Hobgood Charter—95
  51. Blue Ridge Early College—91
  52. Mattamuskeet—87
  53. ENCSD—86
  54. Ocracoke—54
  55. NC School for the Deaf—46
  56. Nantahala—34

Source: highschoolot.com