The Democratic party is working quickly to include abortion-rights proposals on state ballots in order to increase voter participation and support their candidates in both national and regional elections.

However, these efforts may not result in the desired outcome for Democrats, as shown by a review conducted by POLITICO of five ballot measures related to abortion that have been presented since the overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022.

Voters overwhelmingly supported the right to abortion in all cases. However, this was mainly due to Republican voters who also voted for Republican candidates. Democratic turnout did not consistently rise in states with abortion referendums compared to those without. Some Democrats who were on the same ballots as abortion measures lost their elections. On the other hand, many Democrats who campaigned as advocates for abortion rights, even in states without related referendums, exceeded expectations.

John LaBombard, a trusted advisor for Democratic candidates in swing and red states, warned against assuming that an abortion-rights ballot initiative will be the deciding factor in an election for either party. It would be ill-advised for candidates to rely solely on this issue to determine their success. Kyrsten Sinema

Republican Senator from Arizona and former Democratic Senator from Missouri, Claire McCaskill. “In some cases, ballot measures can highlight contrasts between the contenders – even in heavily conservative areas where the electorate is more inclined to vote along party lines. However, voters may consider them separately from the actual measure.”

Efforts are currently in progress to include abortion rights as a ballot measure in approximately twelve states for the 2024 election. These states, such as Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, could heavily influence the outcome of the Senate and presidential election.

As President Joe Biden indicates that he will prioritize abortion in his campaign for reelection, Democrats at all levels are aiming to capitalize on the ongoing public outcry against abortion bans. Strategists from both the Republican and Democratic parties agree that the issue continues to be damaging for the GOP, and that ballot measures could compel candidates from both parties to address it, offering voters a distinct contrast.

Stan Barnes, a political consultant and former Republican state senator in Arizona, stated that the potential passing of an abortion-rights amendment by progressive groups could have negative consequences for Republicans. The ballot measure would force candidates to take a stance on the issue, which can be challenging for pro-life candidates as the majority of people support some form of legal abortion.

A strategy has been developed to increase voter turnout for the Democratic party and sway important congressional races in 2024 by advocating for an amendment that protects abortion rights. This decision was made in response to the New York Democrats’ failure in the recent midterms, which ultimately helped the GOP gain control of the House.

Progressive organizations in Florida are working hastily to obtain sufficient signatures before February in order to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot. The amendment aims to invalidate the state’s abortion bans at 15 weeks and 6 weeks.

Those initiatives are likely to draw some support from Republican voters. The POLITICO analysis of data from five states that have held abortion referendums since 2022 shows varied levels of crossover voting, with a decisive share of voters in some states backing both Republican candidates and abortion rights.

This highlights the uncertainty for 2024, as some states will vote on abortion rights alongside Republican candidates who back restrictions on abortion. While abortion referendums saw significant voter turnout in non-election years, 2024 will be the first time this occurs during a presidential election, potentially bringing in millions of previously inactive voters.

According to an analysis by POLITICO of voter records from the past two years, Republicans had a higher representation in the November 2023 abortion referendum in Ohio compared to Democrats.

The distribution of votes across other states did not suggest a significant increase in Democratic voter participation.

In the state of California, 66.9% of voters voted in favor of a constitutional amendment in 2022 to safeguard abortion rights. This was a margin of over 7 percentage points compared to Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom’s campaign for reelection.

Despite low Democratic voter turnout, the measure was successful. From 2020 to 2022, there was a significant decrease in turnout in heavily Democratic counties compared to those that lean Republican. Although abortion rights were a major win, it was mainly due to Republican voters crossing over. However, the decrease in Democratic turnout also played a role in the party’s difficulties in other races.

The decline in the national percentage points during the 2018 midterms was 3.8, but it still remained steady.

She stated that there was a tangible force at play. The public views this as a clash between freedom and government intervention, which was crucial to Whitmer’s success.

However, it is challenging to decipher the impact of the referendum in Michigan. The state’s adoption of automatic and same-day voter registration likely contributed to higher turnout among young voters. Additionally, there was a strong turnout in both predominantly Democratic and Republican regions. The issue of abortion rights exceeded Whitmer’s 10-point victory margin the most in heavily Republican areas, indicating the influence of individuals who voted for abortion rights but not for Whitmer on the same ballot.

The topic of abortion has also aided Democrats in winning states where the question of access was not directly presented to voters, including Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

According to Kate Letzler Moore, who is managing former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s (D-Fla.) Senate campaign, the recent elections in purple and red states demonstrated that voters will actively support and defend access to abortion, regardless of whether it is a ballot initiative or a legislative action, or if there is a significant contrast between the two candidates. Moore believes that this trend will continue in Florida.

Similar to the 2022 election in Pennsylvania, abortion was a significant topic for voters but was not included in the ballot.

Democratic candidates are discovering that the long-held belief that advocating for abortion rights would deter conservative voters is actually attracting their support. This is particularly effective when presented as a battle against government intrusion.

In the state of Montana, Tester’s campaign manager, Shelbi Dantic, stated that they will focus on the issue of abortion, even if the state’s initiative for abortion rights does not reach its signature goal by June. This is significant as the Democrats’ Senate majority may depend on Tester’s reelection.

According to Dantic, the people of the state, who voted against an anti-abortion referendum in 2022, value their personal freedom and do not want government interference in their actions.

The Democratic party in Ohio is relying on voters to recall their backing of the state’s abortion-rights legislation from last year. They are confident that it is crucial for them to be perceived as fierce supporters of access and to differentiate themselves from their opponents, rather than to have a shared referendum on the ballot.

According to LaBombard, when voters become aware of the extreme views held by certain Republicans, it becomes difficult for them to gain support from a key demographic: suburban women. This trend was evident in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and is especially pronounced in battleground states where the outcome of the House and Senate races will be crucial.