By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan.com contributor

UNC and NC State both lost to their California visitors over the weekend. Both lost on the final possession.

What’s striking is that neither California team, neither the Stanford Cardinal nor the California Golden Bears, appeared to be a threat based on the way they played in their first round of east coast games three days earlier.

In the expanded Atlantic Coast Conference, teams traveling cross country now stay awhile; they don’t just play one game and fly home.

Stanford lost at Wake Forest 80-67. The Cardinal then quartered in the Triangle and practiced in the Smith Center Thursday and Friday. Saturday they looked pretty comfortable in what can be a hostile building.

The Cal Bears also remained in the Triangle. After getting thrashed by Carolina 79-53 the Bears got in two good days of east coast workouts. By Saturday, they were a much different team against NC State.

Quad III loss for UNC

Each of UNC’s first six losses came against Quad I opponents. Stanford Saturday checked in at #84 in the NET rankings, 50 spots below the Tar Heels. So that means the Cardinal would not have been a Quad I opponent even if the teams had been playing in Maples Pavilion.

You could argue that Stanford, with superstar big man Maxime Raynaud, was undervalued. You could argue that Stanford played like a Quad I opponent. But officially, this was a bad loss for Carolina. The Tar Heels are now 5-1 in Quad III games.

Prior to Saturday, North Carolina had built a four-game winning streak. The Tar Heels’ success came largely on the strength of tougher defense, especially since the return of top defender Seth Trimble.

In conference only games teams shoot just 37% against the Tar Heels, best in the ACC. From beyond the arc, teams shoot just 22% against the Heels. That too is #1 in the league.

But Saturday UNC’s defense was not good enough against Stanford’s perimeter players.

Raynaud led all scorers with 25 points, but the skilled seven footer needed 24 shots to get his 25 points. Meanwhile, the Cardinal back court lit it up.

Donavin Young, Oziyah Sellers, Ryan Agarwal, and Jaylen Blakes combined to make 18 of 36 shots; 4 of 10 from three. That’s 50% and 40% respectively, well above UNC’s recent defensive norm.

Blakes, the former Duke reserve, hurt the Tar Heels most going 7-13 from the floor for 20 points. Most importantly, he hit the game-winning basket.

Raynaud’s biggest impact on the game came on defense. He blocked four shots and altered many others.

UNC, which shoots just 33% from beyond the arc in ACC play has been attacking the basket more, and connecting on better than 50% of its two point shots in most recent games. Raynaud made that more difficult to do. Ian Jackson, who had scored 20 or more in six of the previous seven games, made just one field goal in eight tries. R.J. Davis shot well from beyond the arc, 3-7, but made just three of his eight two point attempts-another example of Raynaud’s reach.

Stanford for the most part controlled the tempo. Coach Kyle Smith used quick time outs to prevent the Tar Heels from going on their patented runs. The Heels earned 11 fast break points but they were well scattered. Once in the first half and again in the second, Smith called time after the Heels got the crowd roaring with a transition basket. On each occasion Stanford settled down and scored when play resumed, quieting the crowd.

Post game, UNC Coach Hubert Davis bemoaned all the mistakes his team made. He noted they were small mistakes, but put together made it hard to win. We’re talking about a missed box out, a poor shot, reaching in, etc. These mistakes prevented the Tar Heels from building a good lead.

UNC turned the ball over just five times, well below the seasonal norm. But two of those came at crunch time. Davis’ sloppy past against Stanford’s 1-3-1 zone trap was especially egregious.

The Tar Heels shot more free throws than the Cardinal and made 20-24 for 83%. Yet Stanford hit 13-14 for 93%. Elliot Cadeau may have been UNC’s best player offensively with 12 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 0 turnovers, but he missed a free throw with 2:38 left that would have given UNC a five point lead. Instead it was just 67-63 and that didn’t last.

Raynaud hit a three to make it 67-66. Agarwal made a layup and Blakes hit two free throws. Trimble scored UNC’s last field goal and made two pressure charity tosses to give UNC a 71-70 lead with seven seconds left.

But Trimble couldn’t stop Blakes’ step back jumper and Stanford pocketed its first win over North Carolina in 14 tries.

The Tar Heels head to Winston-Salem Tuesday to play a Wake Forest team that just beat Stanford by 13. The Deacons are 6-1 in conference competition.

Somewhat surprisingly, UNC dropped only four positions in the NET after Saturday’s Quad III loss. But the fall could be more precipitous if the Heels can’t beat #76 Wake Forest.

Inconsistent State plummets

NC State finds itself in a three way tie for 12th place in the ACC. The Wolfpack at 2-5 is just one game ahead of 16th place Boston College and remember only 15 teams will compete at the ACC Tournament in Charlotte.

Kevin Keatts’ squad had a great opportunity for a 2-0 week. The Wolfpack led Virginia Tech by 13 with just over 7 minutes to play. But the Pack lost in the final two seconds when three point shooter Jaden Schutt was allowed to get his own rebound and got fouled. Back home against Cal Saturday, the Wolfpack got a boost from the return of Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. But the Bears took advantage of two State scoring droughts-one in each half-and held on to win 65-62.

State played good defense at times against the offense minded Bears. The Wolfpack held Cal without a point during a four minute stretch late in the first half. Trouble is, State struggled to score during that period as well, missing 7 of 9 shots. So instead of taking a lead of say, six points into halftime, the Pack trailed at the break 31-29.

The best offense of the night came early in the second half. NC State hit 7 of its first 8 shots. Then again, Cal also hit 7 of its first 8, one a three pointer-plus some free throws. The Bears built a six point lead with 9:55 to go.

State caught up once, only to again fall six points down at 61-55. The Wolfpack failed to score on five of six possessions over a four minute period, roughly from the eight minute mark to the four minute mark.

Marcus Hill and Jayden Taylor sparked a late seven point surge for the Wolfpack that saw State take its first and only lead of the second half 62-61. State however did not score in the game’s final 1:20, allowing Cal to head west with a win in its pocket.

Three point shooting was a huge factor in this untimely defeat. Cal, which ranks 17th from beyond the arc in ACC play at 28%, made 6 of 16 threes against NC State. That’s almost 38%. Defending the three point line is one of the main tenets of the Kevin Keatts basketball philosophy, but this team isn’t doing it. Opponents shoot 39% against the Wolfpack in ACC games. Only Miami is worse.

And of course NC State does not shoot the three ball well, ranking 15th in this category. The Pack was just abysmal against Cal, making just 1 of 10.

It would help NC State, which ranks 17th in ACC scoring at just 67.9 points per game to get more easy baskets from its defense. The Wolfpack forced 11 Cal turnovers and scored 19 points off those turnovers. But only 6 came on the fast break. By contrast, the Golden Bears scored 12 fast break points.

NC State still has time to make something of this season but not much time. The Wolfpack dropped 13 spots in the latest NET rankings, down to #119. It will take a prolonged win streak with multiple Quad I victories to move the Pack even remotely close to earning an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Given State’s low standing in so many key statistical categories, it’s more realistic to focus on qualifying for the ACC Tournament-preferably with a bye.

The Wolfpack has a week off before hosting high scoring SMU Saturday at the Lenovo Center. If there is to be to a turnaround, it must start Saturday. There is much to fix.

Source: wralsportsfan.com