JMB’s predicted conference realignment model
Realignment is almost here.
Athletic directors across the state will see a first draft of new conferences this month. There will be chances to appeal in January, with hopes of finalizing conferences by March for the fall of 2025.
I’ve been covering high school sports for 17 years, and this is the most anticipated realignment yet, as the number of classes doubled from four to eight. We don’t have much precedent for what’s to come.
Last month, HSOT’s Joel Bryant proposed a model for conferences that cut down on split conferences as much as possible. It was pretty thought-provoking and worth your time.
I did end up with 33 split leagues in my model, which is not a huge increase from the 22 we have now with four classifications. My realignment proposal focused on a few key areas that guided me through some of the more difficult schools to place:
Here are the procedures that I tried to follow below:
- Each conference with 6-8 teams (I only have two with five teams and two with nine teams)
- Limit three-way split conferences to those that include a “border county” (I ended up with seven, five of which have border counties and the other two are not far off)
- If stuck with putting one larger team in a smaller split or one smaller team in a larger split, go with the former (i.e. West Brunswick the only 6A in a 5A league is better than them being the only 6A in an 8A/7A league). You’d rather be the big fish than little fish if you’re going to be outnumbered no matter what.
- Try to stick an existing conference name on the new league based on existing schools (I only created two new leagues from our current total, so neither of those has a name)
- As a starting point, I used already existing conferences and tried to see how much they could keep together.
- I also went back a few realignment periods in some cases to see which old combinations have made sense in the past.
I grouped them below by region based on the majority of teams in conferences. There are plenty of leagues that stretch across area codes, so be sure to scan another area code first before claiming I left you off.
I explained some of the decisions below each region.
252 area conferences
The new “Big Carolina” 7A/6A: (7A) D.H. Conley, New Bern, South Central; (6A) J.H. Rose, Jacksonville, West Carteret, Swansboro, White Oak
The new “Big East” 6A/5A: (6A) Northern Nash, Franklinton; (5A) Rocky Mount, Southern Nash, Hunt, Fike, C.B. Aycock, Southern Wayne
The new “Northeastern Coastal” 5A/4A/3A: (5A) Currituck County; (4A) First Flight; (3A) Hertford County, Pasquotank County, Northeastern, Martin County
The new “Eastern Plains” 4A: North Pitt, Washington, West Craven, SouthWest Edgecombe, North Johnston, Eastern Wayne, North Lenoir, Nash Central
The new “Neuse 6” 3A: Princeton, Goldsboro, Spring Creek, Beddingfield, Farmville Central, Ayden-Grifton, Greene Central
The new “Four Rivers” 2A: Camden County, Holmes, Manteo, Bertie, Gates County, Perquimans, Tarboro
The new “Coastal Plains” 2A/1A: (2A) East Carteret, Lejeune, Pamlico County, Southside; (1A) Jones, Northside of Beaufort County, Washington County
The new “Tar-Roanoke” 2A/1A: (2A) Warren County, Northampton County, Northwest Halifax; (1A) Weldon, Southeast Halifax, North Edgecombe
The new “Atlantic 6” 1A: Cape Hatteras, Columbia, Mattamuskeet, Ocracoke
The new “TBA” 1A: Rocky Mount Prep, Wilson Prep, Hobgood Charter, North East Carolina Prep, Bear Grass Charter, KIPP Pride
Independent 1A: Eastern N.C. School for the Deaf
Analysis: The “Big Carolina” has a lot of travel, but not sure where else anyone could go. I moved Washington County to the Coastal Plains rather than being the only 1A in the Four Rivers. I also split up the charter schools in the Tar-Roanoke area so that one league (the TBA) has six charters and the Tar-Roanoke is left with the six non-charters. Everything else, I think, is pretty self-explanatory.
919 area conferences
The new “Cap-6” 8A: Enloe, Broughton, Leesville Road, Athens Drive, Wakefield, Rolesville, Millbrook, Corinth Holders
The new “Southwest Wake” 8A: Panther Creek, Green Hope, Green Level, Apex Friendship, Apex, Jordan, Willow Spring
The new “Greater Neuse” 7A: Holly Springs, Fuquay-Varina, Garner, South Garner, Clayton, Cleveland, Smithfield-Selma
The new “Northern Athletic” 7A: Wake Forest, Heritage, Knightdale, Southeast Raleigh, East Wake, Sanderson, Cary
The new “DC-6” 7A/6A: (7A) Hillside, Riverside, Chapel Hill, Southern Durham; (6A) Northern Durham, East Chapel Hill, Cardinal Gibbons
The new “All American” 6A: Middle Creek, Felton Grove, Harnett Central, Triton, West Johnston, South Johnston, Western Harnett
The new “Northern Lakes” 5A/4A/3A: (5A) South Granville, J.F. Webb; (4A) Vance County, Bunn, Roanoke Rapids; (3A) Louisburg, Wake Prep
The new “Super Seven” 2A: Franklin Academy, Raleigh Charter, Research Triangle, East Wake Academy, Triangle Math & Science, Voyager, Roxboro Community, Henderson Collegiate, Eno River
The new “Central Tar Heel” 1A: Chatham Charter, Woods Charter, Ascend Leadership, Central Carolina Academy, Southern Wake, Neuse Charter
The new “Triangle North” 1A: River Mill, Clover Garden, Oxford Prep, Vance Charter, Excelsior Classical, Falls Lake
Analysis: Cary can go either to the “Greater Neuse” or “Northern Athletic,” I don’t think there’s a wrong answer there. Middle Creek and Felton Grove join the Harnett and Johnston 6A teams, while Cardinal Gibbons goes to its first 4A league, the old “PAC-6/DC-6.” The Northern Lakes is essentially the former Northern Carolina, but with Wake Prep now involved since there’s no other place for the two 3A schools. Neuse Charter comes over from the Carolina 1A to join the new “Central Tar Heel.”
910 area conferences
The new “Sandhills” 8A/7A: (8A) Hoke County, Pinecrest; (7A) Richmond, Lumberton, Purnell Swett, Overhills, Jack Britt, Cape Fear, Pine Forest
The new “Mideastern” 8A/7A: (8A) Laney, Hoggard; (7A) Ashley, New Hanover, Topsail, North Brunswick
The new “United Eight” 6A: Terry Sanford, E.E. Smith, Westover, Scotland, South View, Gray’s Creek, Seventy-First, Union Pines
The new “Coastal” 6A/5A: (6A) West Brunswick; (5A) South Brunswick, Dixon, Croatan, Richlands, Northside of Jacksonville, Havelock
The new “Southeastern” 5A/4A/3A: (5A) Douglas Byrd, St. Pauls; (4A) Red Springs, Fairmont, Clinton; (3A) Midway
The new “East Central” 4A/3A: (4A) East Duplin, Southwest Onslow; (3A) James Kenan, Wallace-Rose Hill, South Lenoir, Kinston
The new “Waccamaw” 3A/2A/1A: (3A) Trask, South Columbus, Whiteville, Pender, West Bladen; (2A) West Columbus, East Bladen; (1A) East Columbus
The new “Carolina” 2A: Rosewood, Hobbton, North Duplin, Lakewood, Union, ALA-Johnston
Analysis: The new Sandhills is not the easiest on travel, but someone has to round out six teams and it allows the United Eight to stand pat with its new look. Havelock to West Brunswick makes for long trips in the new “Coastal,” but most of the legues have a nearby foe. The “East Central” makeup is perhaps the toughest and also depends on what happens in the “Southeastern.” ALA-Johnston replaces Neuse Charter in the Carolina, while the Waccamaw is tight on travel. Douglas Byrd, the only 5A in Cumberland, might fare better in multiple sports in the “Southeastern,” but it might not think it worth depending on the projected loss (if any) on gate money. I was tempted to make Overhills the only 7A team in the new “All American,” which is now mostly 919, but stayed the course. I was also tempted to put Union Pines in the new “Mid-State” in the 336 along with the Lee schools.
336 area conferences
The new “Central Piedmont” 8A/7A: (8A) West Forsyth, Northwest Guilford; (7A) Reagan, East Forsyth, Davie County, R.J. Reynolds, Parkland
The new “Metro” 7A/6A: (7A) Page, Grimsley, Southwest Guilford; (6A) Ragsdale, Ben L. Smith, Dudley, Northern Guilford, Western Guilford
The new “Mid-State” 6A: Lee County, Southern Lee, Williams, Southern Alamance, Asheboro, Southeast Guilford, Eastern Guilford
The new “Mid-Piedmont” 6A/5A: (6A) Mount Tabor, Glenn; (5A) Atkins, North Forsyth, High Point Central, Southern Guilford, Northeast Guilford, Rockingham County
The new “Central” 5A: Orange, Cedar Ridge, Person, Durham School of the Arts, Eastern Alamance, Western Alamance, Southeast Alamance, Seaforth
The new “Central Carolina” 5A/4A: (5A) Montgomery Central, North Davidson, Oak Grove; (4A) Salisbury, Lexington, Ledford, Central Davidson, South Rowan
The new “Mid-State” 4A: Reidsville, T.W. Andrews, Morehead, Randleman, Southwestern Randolph, Uwharrie Charter, Carver
The new “Mid-Carolina” 4A/3A: (4A) Carrboro, Jordan-Matthews, Cummings, Graham; (3A) Northwood, Bartlett Yancey, McMichael, NCSSM-Durham
The new “TBA” 4A/3A: (4A) West Stokes, Forbush, North Surry; (3A) Walkertown, East Surry, Surry Central, Mount Airy
The new “PAC-7” 3A: East Davidson, West Davidson, Thomasville, Wheatmore, Providence Grove, Trinity, Eastern Randolph
The new “Northwest” 2A: Starmount, East Wilkes, Alleghany, Elkin, South Stokes, Bishop McGuinness, Cornerstone Charter, Piedmont Classical
The new “Northwest Piedmont” 1A: Winston-Salem Prep, Leadership Academy, Bethany Community, Millenium Charter, College Prep & Leadership, Triad Math & Science, Phoenix Academy, North Stokes
Analysis: It was easier to move Northwest Guilford to the west and make a new “Central Piedmont” split, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mount Tabor and Glenn hate their “Mid-Piedmont” conference and ask to move back. Again, I followed a simple precedent that if you’re going to be outnumbered, you’d rather be the big fish than little fish. The new “Mid-State” features the two Lee schools, which is unique but they each get pushed out conferences forming to the south and east of them. For the most part, these leagues are pretty tight on travel. McMichael going to the Mid-Carolina may seem new, but they’ve been in a conference with Carrboro before when both schools were 2A.
704 area conferences
The new “Southern Meck” 8A: Ardrey Kell, South Mecklenburg, Myers Park, Palisades, East Mecklenburg, Providence, Garinger
The new “Queen City Athletic” 8A/7A: (8A) Hough, Mallard Creek, Chambers, West Charlotte; (7A) North Mecklenburg, Hopewell, West Mecklenburg
The new “Greater Metro 7” 7A: Lake Norman, Mooresville, South Iredell, A.L. Brown, Cox Mill, Hickory Ridge, West Cabarrus
The new “Southwestern” 7A: Marvin Ridge, Weddington, Cuthbertson, Porter Ridge, Ballantyne Ridge, Independence, Butler, Rocky River
The new “Southern Carolina” 6A: Sun Valley, Piedmont, Charlotte Catholic, Olympic, Berry Academy, Harding, Central Cabarrus
The new “Big South” 6A/5A: (6A) Ashbrook, Kings Mountain; (5A) Forestview, North Gaston, South Point, Crest, Hunter Huss
The new “South Piedmont” 5A: Jesse Carson, West Rowan, East Rowan, Concord, Northwest Cabarrus, Jay M. Robinson
The new “Rocky River” 5A/4A: (5A) Parkwood, Forest Hills, Monroe; (4A) Mount Pleasant, Central Academy, West Stanly, Anson
The new “Metro 6” 4A/3A: (4A) Lake Norman Charter, Lincoln Charter; (3A) Pine Lake Prep, Piedmont Community, Union Academy
The new “Southern Piedmont” 4A/3A: (4A) Burns, East Gaston, Stuart Cramer; (3A) West Lincoln, Lincolnton, Shelby, Bessemer City
The new “Yadkin Valley” 3A/2A/1A: (3A) North Stanly, North Moore; (2A) Albemarle, Gray Stone Day, South Stanly, North Rowan; (1A) Chatham Central, South Davidson
The new “Catawba Shores” 2A: CSD, Langtree Charter, Mountain Island Charter, Christ the King, Bradford Prep, Corvian Community, Queen’s Grant, Sugar Creek Charter
The new “Western Foothills” 2A/1A: (2A) Highland Tech, Cherryville; (1A) Carolina International, Valor Preparatory, Jackson Day, Bonnie Cone Leadership, Thomas Jefferson
Analysis: The most difficult choices here surround certain split conferences, but you have to like how travel is kept low in many of these leagues. I did toy with the idea of Ashbrook and Kings Mountain in the “Southern Carolina” instead of Central Cabarrus some. The “Metro 6” only has five teams, but they’re all the biggest charters in the area. The “Yadkin Valley” may seem odd to have North Moore and Chatham Central, but that was actually the norm for years.
828 area conferences
The new “Mountain Athletic” 7A/6A/5A: (7A) McDowell; (6A) T.C. Roberson, Asheville, A.C. Reynolds; (5A) Erwin, Enka, North Buncombe
The new “Northwestern” 6A: Watauga, South Caldwell, Alexander Central, Freedom, St. Stephens, North Iredell, Statesville
The new “Catawba Valley” 5A/4A: (5A) Hickory, East Lincoln, North Lincoln; (4A) Newton-Conover, Bandys, Bunker Hill, Maiden, Fred T. Foard, West Iredell
The new “Mountain 7” 5A/4A: (5A) West Henderson, North Henderson, Franklin, Smoky Mountain; (4A) Tuscola, East Henderson, Pisgah, Brevard
The new “Foothills” 4A/3A: (4A) Wilkes Central, Ashe County, East Burke, Hibriten; (3A) West Caldwell, North Wilkes, West Wilkes
The new “Mountain Foothills 7” 4A/3A: (4A) R-S Central; (3A) East Rutherford, CHASE, Hendersonville, Draughn, Patton, Polk County
The new “Western Highlands” 3A/2A/1A: (3A) Madison, Owen, Mountain Heritage; (2A) Mitchell, Avery County; (1A) Rosman, NCSSM-Morganton
The new “Big Smoky Mountain” 2A/1A: (2A) Swain County, Murphy, Hayesville, Cherokee; (1A) Robbinsville, Andrews
The new “Little Smoky Mountain” 1A: Hiwassee Dam, Tri-County Early College, Highlands, Blue Ridge Early College, Nantahala, Summit Charter
Independent 1A: N.C. School for the Deaf
Analysis: I think there’s an argument that McDowell could go to the Northwestern, but I didn’t want to upset St. Stephens, North Iredell, and Statesville and kept them where they are. I do fear that Hickory, East Lincoln, and North Lincoln will dominate the Catawba Valley, but there’s hardly any other good spots to put 5A teams (Hickory to Kings Mountain in the “Big South” seemed a little too far, having recently made that trip). I kept R-S Central as the only 4A in its split for reasons listed above, but could see them getting moved to the “Southern Piedmont” also.
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Source: highschoolot.com